Seal the deal...

The deal is done. At last. Ending days of intense speculation and moving swiftly, India’s regional Samajwadi Party (SP) finally came to the rescue of a jittery United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government at the Centre which had been held hostage by its Left partners for over a year over the Nuke deal with the United States of America. Finally, ending months of bickering it is apparent the two political allies would part ways sometime soon and if that happens the UPA government needs stated support of other groups to ensure that it has the requisite majority to continue in the Government as per the provisions of the Indian Constitution. The SP, a strong regional outfit in country’s most populous northern state of Uttar Pradesh (UP), has come forward, in what is being seen as major political re-alignment, and is all set to pull the government out of a major crisis and a major international embarrassment.

In the process the SP has ensured two things: One it has resurrected its lost prestige – from absolute bewilderment four years, ago when the then ascendant UPA had snubbed the party, to a party which has turned a Saviour. Two it has ensured, it’s back in the power matrix. After getting a thrashing at UP Assembly polls in 2007, where another regional outfit Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) under its leader Mayawati had emerged a handsome winner, many had begun to wonder about the fate of SP. But the party under the leadership of former Indian Defence Minister and Chief Minister of UP Mulayam Singh Yadav is back with its clout. It is not yet clear if SP would join the Union Cabinet but it is certainly clear that it will wield tremendous influence in the remaining life of the government. And why not. Today, thanks to SP’s generous political drips, UPA government which had been on tenterhooks and sneezed every time Left leaders caught a cold looks in pink of health and is breathing well enough to last its full term till early next year (2009).
Indian political observers, who seem busy at the moment to comment on the new political re-alignment, may soon begin to ponder on what it means in the long-run for country’s coalition politics. Few trends could be as follows.

A beleaguered Congress, which has been losing state after state since it was catapulted back in the Centre in a dramatic reversal of fortunes four years ago replacing Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), realize it needs to strengthen its rainbow of coalition if it has to be in contention after the next General Elections expected in March-April 2009.

The addition of SP into the fold of UPA and next few months of working relationship is likely to foster a much better chemistry between the two parties and may also improve Congress’s sagging fortunes in the Hindi heartland – empirical evidence suggests that parties which perform well in this Hindi heartland of UP can often dictate the way wind will blow at the Centre. Congress stands to gain perhaps as much as SP out of this new re-alignment.

It is also critical to note the emergence of a new entity called UNPA or United National Progressive Alliance, which is another rainbow of regional outfits sprung in the aftermath of formation of UPA in an attempt to create what is known in India as a credible Third Front – in India Congress and BJP have been two major national parties which have hogged the limelights as far as formation of a national government is concerned. SP incidentally was the chief architect of this grouping and it was, rather it is, based on the premise of providing a non-Congress, non-BJP alternative at the Centre – such experiment has seen installation of two prime ministers in the country in the past, both of which could not last too long. Some of the elements of this group such as TDP and INLD were strong partners of the BJP-led NDA.

The drifting of SP towards Congress and UPA could possibly mean, and politics they say is a game of unlimited possibilities, that at a future point some of the elements of the light-weight UNPA may get attracted towards the UPA as well. SP can certainly be expected to play a big role as and when it may happen – for records though Om Prakash Chauthala who heads Haryana’s Indian National Lok Dal’s (INLD) declared on Saturday that UNPA would continue as it is and SP’s realignment doesn’t dampen their spirits. But that’s today and who knows how he sees the tomorrow.

One must also remember, UPA boasts of some of the finest political strategists like Lalu Yadav (of Bihar’s Rashtriya Janata Dal or RJD), Karunanidhi (of Tamil Nadu’s Dravida Munita Kazhigam or DMK) and Sharad Pawar (of Maharashtra’s Nationalist Congress Party or NCP) and the addition of Mulayam-Amar duo would add to its strength. Incidentally, one is not sure how much effect the group’s anti-BJP tirade and ranting of secular credentials would create. In the months leading to the next General Elections, UPA would have to ponder on some bigger, brighter agenda and given the rainbow of political leaders that UPA have it may not be difficult. If nothing else, the UPA has certainly implemented some best policy interventions to empower the poor and the destitute and they can certainly make right and big noise about its programmes such as National Rural Employment Guarantee A and Farm Loan Waiver for indebted farmers to name a few.

Right-wing BJP, which nurtures a big dream of staking its claim at the centre after the next elections, is certainly a worried lot and despite its winning streak in recent past it will have to continue devising means to garner decent numbers in order to form a government.