I am perplexed as a frog at the sudden lull in political bickering these days. Barring few byte barbs at each other over Hindu vs Muslim terrorism, mainstream political parties seem to have arrived at a consensus on a momentary shift in focus. Not surprisingly all the raging issues from inflation to nuke deal, north versus west, job losses to economic recession and bad economics which so prominently featured in political discourses have strikingly disappeared from national political consciousness.
The focus has shifted to six state elections and rightly so.
Polls for state assemblies are due in Chhatisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Delhi, Mizoram and J & K over next few weeks and top political brass is busy devising means of grabbing power there.
By December 8 we shall know the outcome in these state elections which are being dubbed as the semi finals before the final of the General Elections to be held by April 2009. Mainstream Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) which has been on a winning spree in states since the incumbent United Progressive Alliance (UPA) led by the Indian National Congress came to power in 2004 is eyeing a repeat performance. Subsequently, it would aim to grab power at the centre with its coalition partners under the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) umbrella which earlier ruled from 1999 to 2004.
The Congress, despite having introduced some brilliant social and populist schemes such as National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (NREGA) and Civilian Nuclear Agreement with USA, is visibly on the back foot and would be hoping the rule of anti-incumbency swings results in its favour in Rajasthan, Chhatisgarh and Madhya Pradesh. The timing of the elections could not have been worse for the party. Price rise, internal security and economic slowdown have created an atmosphere of gloom among large swathe of people and the mood is bound to get transmitted onto the ballot papers, or yes, the Electronic Voting Machines. I know for myself, I am perturbed at the state of our security in recent past.
The elections are also crucial for Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), which is in power in the most populous state of Uttar Pradesh (UP), and is led by a fiery leader and UP chief minister Mayawati. The party which is credited with devising a unique social engineering formula and has made rapid strides in recent past is set to spoil the party for both Congress and BJP in at least four states except Mizoram and J&K. The party sits pretty on its strong vote bank of Dalits and other marginalized groups, has been able to enlarge its rainbow by drawing support from many upper and lower caste groupings of the Indian society. Caste affiliations incidentally play the most crucial role in Indian elections most of the places. BSP exhibited its power in Delhi municipal elections last year by grabbing an impressive 10% vote share and in the process jeopardizing Congress’s prospects. BJP won the municipal elections with impressive margins.
While the elections would as usual spring in some surprises and certainly set the tone for the General Elections, I would be keenly watching BSP’s game plan and gains. While it will not be in a position to come to power anywhere, it has the potential to spring surpsies. Will it?
Sunday, November 16, 2008
Unity in diversity?
My friend Monish Mazumdar has been too kind to send this piece to be published here.
India is a land of "Unity in Diversity" was some of the essays we used to write during our school days. The theme use to revolve around geographic, cultural, linguistic, religious issues drawing similarities and contrast. Looking at the recent incidents of violence in Orissa and Maharashtra I question myself as to where we all are heading. Remember the erstwhile USSR and its super power status during pre and post cold war era. Now Russia is limited by geographic boundaries though still roars like a sleeping lion whenever there is crisis around. Smaller states were created through political referendums and ethnic clashes and we see the major ones merging into the European Union. Post cold war, the ethnic clashes among states of erstwhile USSR were mainly on linguistic and cultural issues. This has never happened and seems will never happen with US of A because of one culture and one religion.
With general election round the corner in India, political parties have already started seat sharing discussions, pacts and negotiations. Political leaders are also busy drawing strategies for setting the agenda for the election campaign with attacks and counter attack strategies. In the current scenario the people of the country needs to be sensible enough to read between the lines of what the media represents from the political remarks made. Otherwise we are likely to see similar situation that had taken place with USSR on linguistic and cultural lines, even though pundits predict that China & India among the emerging economies would take the lead in globalization efforts and financial stability in all the major stock markets. While I say similar situation, I mean religious conflicts that have taken place in Orissa which has brought shame to the nation. The linguistic and regional conflicts and negative attitude of people of Maharashtra towards north Indians also falls in the same category.
It's better to wait and watch rather than jump into any conclusion at this moment, but at the same time keep calm and think of responsible and sensible citizenship.
India is a land of "Unity in Diversity" was some of the essays we used to write during our school days. The theme use to revolve around geographic, cultural, linguistic, religious issues drawing similarities and contrast. Looking at the recent incidents of violence in Orissa and Maharashtra I question myself as to where we all are heading. Remember the erstwhile USSR and its super power status during pre and post cold war era. Now Russia is limited by geographic boundaries though still roars like a sleeping lion whenever there is crisis around. Smaller states were created through political referendums and ethnic clashes and we see the major ones merging into the European Union. Post cold war, the ethnic clashes among states of erstwhile USSR were mainly on linguistic and cultural issues. This has never happened and seems will never happen with US of A because of one culture and one religion.
With general election round the corner in India, political parties have already started seat sharing discussions, pacts and negotiations. Political leaders are also busy drawing strategies for setting the agenda for the election campaign with attacks and counter attack strategies. In the current scenario the people of the country needs to be sensible enough to read between the lines of what the media represents from the political remarks made. Otherwise we are likely to see similar situation that had taken place with USSR on linguistic and cultural lines, even though pundits predict that China & India among the emerging economies would take the lead in globalization efforts and financial stability in all the major stock markets. While I say similar situation, I mean religious conflicts that have taken place in Orissa which has brought shame to the nation. The linguistic and regional conflicts and negative attitude of people of Maharashtra towards north Indians also falls in the same category.
It's better to wait and watch rather than jump into any conclusion at this moment, but at the same time keep calm and think of responsible and sensible citizenship.
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