Is the BJP turning senile?

India’s right-wing Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP), the main opposition party at the Centre and in power in 11 states, is crumbling. After facing a humiliating defeat in its bid to corner the central United Progressive Alliance government over the nuclear deal last week in the Parliament and having lost considerable ground in the currency-waving scandal, the party is seemingly loosing its moral and psychological balance. Just when the nation is shocked over the terror caused by blasts in India’s two big cities – Bangalore and Ahmedabad – one of BJP’s top spokespersons Sushma Swaraj on Monday alleged, exhibiting a new low of moral bankruptcy in the party, that the blasts were engineered to divert attention from the Note-For-Vote scandal. This was a direct reference to the Congress party which leads an umbrella of coalition at the Centre.

While the Congress has surely reacted with rage, for common people, this marks a new low in Indian politics, coming as it is after another gloomy episode of currency waving scandal in the Parliament, in which also, BJP had a key role to play.

The comments by Swaraj is in a series of such baseless and mindless utterances by senior BJP leaders in the recent past.

First, L K Advani said on July 22 that the three BJP MPs who had waved wads of currency in the Parliament had his approval – a veteran leader like him could not foresee the kind of damage it could inflict on India’s pristine institution. Then in the aftermath of party protesters turning violent and attacking houses of MPs who had defected in the Trust Vote over Nuclear Agreement, another spokesperson Rajiv Pratap Rudy said recklessly that the attacked MPs should go and seek shelter and support from 10 Janpath (Where Congress Chief Sonia Gandhi resides) and Prime Minister. This was a bizarre and one of the most irresponsible statements one could think of from a mature party like BJP.

The writing on the wall is clear. The BJP has lost the plot and in its bid to outsmart its key opponent is making ridiculous accusations and moves. Strangely, the party which shouts in coarse voice over corruption is itself deep-neck into it all: in Operation Chakravyuh, a sting carried out by a TV channel to expose MPs who took money for raising questions in the Parliament, most MPs were from BJP. The first sting op in the Country by one Tehelka.com exposed the then BJP president taking cash as bribe. A leading columnist, quoting Media Watch group, wrote in a Hindi newspaper Punjab Kesari on Monday (July 28, 08) that every 8th MP in BJP’s pack of 130 in the Parliament is tainted. Also the group found that BJP has the maximum number of tainted MPs: 22.

Incidentally, the maximum number of MPs who defected on this Trust Vote, too were from BJP highlighting the moral bankruptcy of the party. Now if amid all this the party claims to preach and follow the most truthful path, it sounds plain absurd.

A friend commented in desperation, “I didn’t know craving for power mixed with lack of it could make BJP leadership so rudderless and senile.”

UPA punctures Karat's bloated ego, NDA scurrys for cover

Notwithstanding the many controversies surrounding it and high-pitched moral clatter by media and political double-standards, the two-day Parliament session turned out to be a bold statement on current political situation. The Congress and SP emerged as clear winners, adept at political realignments and wooing fence-sitters. Despite their high moral grounds BJP stood miserably exposed and has lots to worry about its pack ahead of the next General Elections.

The scenes unfolded as per the script. The two-day session of Indian Parliament, as expected, turned out to be a tumultuous one with all the ingredients making it resemble a sordid Bollywood flick: drama, suspense, vulgarity and an uncanny climax. It would be unfair to say it did not have its moment of glory as well: speeches of Omar Abdullah, Rahul Gandhi, Lalu Yadav, Pranab Mukherjee and Asdaduddin Owaisi certainly added moments of sparkle in the otherwise gloomy session on July 21 & 22 called by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to seek a Trust Vote before his government goes ahead with the crucial Safeguards Agreement negotiations with IAEA a vital step leading to the formal announcement of Indo-US Civilian Nuclear Agreement.

Ugly scenes and uglier consequences

The climax turned out to be the most melodramatic, as if straight from the sleeves of a creepy director who sees little beyond the immediate. Three BJP MPs waving wads of currency pretending as if they were the only epitome of integrity in this country of deceitful people was certainly a dark moment in the history of Indian Parliament. One wonders if the idiotic scenes could yield much except fanning the already severe antipathy of people for the political class. For the BJP which may have thought this act of its three MPs to be a masterstroke – with the backing of senior leader L K Advani – the plot went horribly awry.

UPA punctures Karat’s bloated ego

The UPA won, as was largely believed, and by a respectable margins. One was aghast at the brazen embracing of morality by all and sundry, journalists included, and suddenly the air was filled with bickering on how the Trust Vote had turned into Distrust and what not. Whatever the skeptics may say, the verdict was out: UPA had won and had severed an injurious blow to the ballooning self-esteem of CPI M’s Prakash Karat, who despite never winning even a municipal elections, had taken it upon himself to dwarf the soaring ambition of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on the Indo-US Civilian Nuclear Agreement.

As it transpires now the nuisance created by Karat all these months did not have any ideological basis – many believed that this man stood firm on an ideology and hence the opposition to Nuclear deal – but rather emanated from his whims, which many believe could have a root somewhere in China! (We shall return to this in a subsequent posting) What else would explain his desperate attempts at cobbling up disparate elements to pose a ‘formidable’ frontal attack on the UPA government at the floor of the Parliament.

In the end, nothing of this materialized. The Left got a humiliating repartee and so did the BJP. BSP too got a blow despite the heroics of its leader Mayawati. Rest did not matter.

UPA, SP net gainers

The two clear gainers were UPA and especially the Congress and SP. It’s well known Manmohan Singh had made it a personal issue and his party had soon fallen into toeing his line, which is nothing short of historic. Had the UPA and Congress lost this battle, the Opposition camp would have been upbeat. While the Left would have taken a strong moral ground, NDA and especially BJP would have gone to town pooh-poohing the government over its “minority” status and “weak” dealing of the Nuclear Agreement. Ahead of the elections, this would have demoralized the Congress which is already not too high on the electoral front having lost over a dozen state Assemblies since it rode back to Centre in a dramatic reversal of fortunes after the 2004 General Elections.

SP too gained, both from a short-term and a long-term perspective. In the short-run, it reasserted itself as a responsible party with a progressive outlook and not jumping over to the Opposition camp just for the heck of it. SP stands to gain, much like the Congress, by tying an electoral knot for UP.

UP and Bihar continue to be crucial for forming a government at the Centre and SP will play a crucial role in the elections which is likely early 2009. Anti-incumbency would have begun to crawl in and Mayawati in her new avatar as a ‘leader’ of a pack of maverick politicians could be found wavering on UP and instead expanding her all-India base in a bid to become a high-potential choice for Prime Minister’s post. SP and Congress could turn out to be a strategically important combination in UP and the two would stand to gain significantly if they play their cards well. For Mulayam Singh Yadav this is a high-stake battle and he would leave little to chance.

The New Third Front leading nowhere

One can’t miss the brouhaha over the New Third Front, with Mayawati at the Front, as Times of India said the other day. While political enthusiasts are quick to juggle out figures – together they have over 85 MPs in the Parliament – to evaluate the might of this 10-party Front, there are finer points that the analysts may be missing. Put simply, the Third Front is nothing but an assortment of opportunistic leaders and its very basis is weak. The fact that it’s not driven by any political agenda and ideology – except of course defeating UPA at the parliament’s special session – and has sprung up in less time than needed to spell New Third Front could shed enough light on its longevity. It’s a wild conglomerate of temperamental and dissipated political opportunism and has little significance whatsoever in the longer run – how can we expect a party like TDP, which is opposed to the creation of a Telangana state within Andhra Pradesh, working together with TRS, whose genesis is based on the demand for such a state. Can we expect Karat’s bloated ego, as we have seen him all these years, align with an equally mercurial Mayawati? Can we expect Ajit Singh to stick with this assortment till the end or Om Prakash Chauthala not to get lured by the NDA? Third Front is a bag full of contradictions, as it stands today.

At least this is what the NDA and even UPA would want this conglomerate turns out to be. For any rise of an equally effective rainbow of political parties would make the roads to Raisina Hills more torturous for the BJP or Congress.

A lull has descended on the political horizon after a hurricane that swept it whole of this week. But this will be short-lived. Soon, all the parties would fan out to design their scripts for the next big drama: 2009 General Elections.

Omar Abdullah keeps the hope alive

What we gained out of the special Parliament session

The two-day Parliament session, as we predicted on July 19, turned out to be among the most memorable in the history of independent Indian politics. Unfortunately, it is being remembered for all the wrong reasons: the brazen display of wads of notes by three BJP MPs and soaring tempers coupled with volley of verbal onslaught clouded the session, which was convened to discuss if we as a nation are willing to go ahead with the Indo-US Civilian Nuclear Agreement.

However, I for once, would remember this for variety of other reasons. And one among them is an impassioned speech by young and dynamic Omar Abdullah which left an indelible mark on my heart. It also left me reassured that there are few incredible sparks amid the dim and gloom of Indian politics which will eventually define the future of our polity.

Abdullah, who was assigned to speak at a critical time when a rampaging group of NDA MPs were taking the House by storm over the currency ‘scandal’, stood firm and began aptly by taking a swipe at them and asking them to give “us a voice” in a direct reference to the people and place he represented. And next few moments in that historic session belonged to this 30-year-old J&K National Conference MP from Srinagar, perhaps the most memorable for the leader himself who has been in public domain for last 10 years now.

The beauty of Abdullah’s speech lies in the fact that besides being cogent, fervent and precise, it touched upon a whole range of political issues and left a lasting impact on not only his constituency but also on a whole generation of Indian youth who pin their hope on leaders like him. He attacked the BJP and the Left, made an ardent plea for the Nuclear Agreement and argued why it was not anti-Muslim as was being made out, made a case for Kashmiris who toil hard every year to ensure success of Amarnath Yatra and rubbished Opposition claims that neither Muslims were opposed to the Nuclear Agreement nor the Agreement was anti-Muslim.

His speech had conviction, maturity, strong political messages and logical and factual prowess.

“I am a Muslim and I am an Indian and I see no distinction between the two. I don’t know why should I fear the nuclear deal. It is a deal between two countries which, I hope, will become two equals in the future,” said Abdullah, who it seems was aptly nominated Global Leader for Tomorrow by the World Economic Forum in 2000-01. He further said, “The enemies of Indian Muslims are not America or deals like these. The enemies are the same as the enemies of all those who are poor — poverty, hunger, lack of development and the absence of a voice.”

Taking a dig at the Left, Abdullah said, “Today, the Left is telling me that all secular parties should stand with the BJP to bring down this government. The same Left treated me like a political untouchable when I was with the NDA” and added articulating his acts of political rights and wrongs, “I am not a member of the UPA and don’t aspire to be one. I made a mistake to be with the NDA, especially after Gujarat riots happened. My conscience had asked me to quit NDA but I didn’t. My conscience has still not forgiven me.” He had by now made a solid point. But that was not it.

In reference to LK Advani’s reference to disturbances caused during Amarnath Yatra, Abdullah said, “Until the day there is even a single Muslim in Kashmir, from Srinagar to Amarnath, the Amarnath yatra will not be allowed to stop.”

The tall Abdullah had emerged taller at the end of his speech. In the days ahead, when political situation is likely to remain fluid, one would expect Abdullah is catapulted into bigger roles and assigned bigger challenges.

Politics will remain murky, it seems, but upright politicians like Omar Abdullah can ensure the spillover does not stink in the long run. One hopes.


Note: Some other highlights of the session were speeches of Rahul Gandhi, Lalu Yadav and AIMIM’s Asaduddin Owaisi. We shall come back on these later.

Keep watching: Hours of political jamboree

Indian Politics has never been so exciting, so tumultuous. The next two days are going to be one of the most memorable in the history of modern Indian politics. The politicking around the nuclear deal -- defiance of the Left parties, weird demeneour of small parties with one or two MPs, designs of the NDA and desperation of the UPA -- will go down in the history as one which saw maximum number of political realignments and possibilities being explored.

Samajwadi Party (SP), a regional strong-hold in Uttar Pradesh embraced it's one-time arch-rival Indian National Congress which leads the pack at the Central Government under an umbrella called United Progressive Alliance (UPA). Left, which has thrived on its agenda of anti-communal forces, is falling into the lap of right-wing Bhartiya Janata Party to realise its obsession of pulling UPA out of government, a desire springing by the whimsical stance of Left leader Prakash Karat who is a known spoilsport. Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), a regional outfit, which has started nurturing the ambition of making a strong pan-India presence, has suddenly begun to cosying up with Left. Now with a senior Left leader's stunt of declaring BSP's leader Mayawati as the next prime minister, the mercurial leader will make an all-out effort to wean away more MPs from its archrival SP.

The smaller parties, which have languished in anonymity and isolation, suddenly find themselves in a hotspot. Where every vote counts -- UPA government is seeking a confidence vote before it proceeds with negotiating the Safeguards Agreement with IAEA -- who knows small parties with one, two or three MPs will hold the critical key for the survival or downfall of the government.

With barely hours left for the crucial vote, one wonders if parties have begun mulling over the fallouts in case of the two possibilities of government surviving or falling.

Sonia Gandhi's act of political propriety

Sonia Gandhi, who heads the Indian National Congress, which is leading the UPA coalition partners at the Central Government, gained yet again in stature on Thursday by thanking the Left parties for enabling the government function all these four years. In the ugly bickering that mark the current phase of Indian politics -- the Left has been accusing the Congress of betraying the Nation over the Nuclear deal and so is the BJP, Congress's main Opposition party etc -- this comes as a refreshing change. The UPA coalition partners were meeting early in the day to strategise on seeking a Trust Vote in the Parliament in the wake of Left withdrawing its support from the UPA thus rendering the government, technically, into a minority. The Prime Minister has taken the stand that before moving to the IAEA for the Safeguards Agreement he would want to seek a vote of confidence in the Parliament.

Sonia thanked the Left parties "who have been with us during these last four years", and added that without their support the UPA could not have been formed and a good deal of what has been achieved would not have been possible. "Unfortunately, we could not carry them with us on the nuclear agreement despite our best efforts. While we regret their withdrawal of support, it is now time to look ahead," she exhorted her leaders while at the same time giving them a lesson or two in political propriety.

This is not the first time Sonia Gandhi has bestowed her generosity. She has been gracious on earlier occasions as well and her refusal to accept the chair of the Prime Minister after the UPA government was sworn in in 2004 will go down in Indian political history as a rare one.

One hopes other leaders of different political ideologies would take a leaf out of Sonia's acts.

Indian Red Guards wave the flag at last

The Red Rebels who zealously guarded against the passage of the Indo-US Nuclear deal have finally waved the Red flag bringing to end over four years of its bitter togetherness with the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance government. Top Left leaders of CPI (M), CPI, Forward Bloc and RSP met President Pratibha Patil Wednesday and submitted separate letters on behalf of their outfits withdrawing support, along with a joint letter asking her to "direct the Prime Minister to seek a vote of confidence in the Lok Sabha immediately."

A group of Left parties elected representatives (Member of Parliament or MP) drawn primarily from West Bengal, Kerala and Tripura had extended their support to the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government at the Centre enabling them to secure the mandatory Constitutional majority in the Parliament after the 2004 general elections. strangely, from the word go the alliance seemed worrying forged as it was on the loud objective of preventing the “communal forces” at bay in an apparent reference to right-wing Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP). In the months that followed the ideological discomfort of the Left over a host of policy issues kept resurfacing at alarming frequency. The Left which was a critical ally of the Union government slammed it on a host of social and economic issues exposing the big chink and raised more than eyebrows on the longevity of the government. Some astute maneuvering by the Congress managers and its other strong allies such as Lalu Yadav and Karunanidhi managed to salvage the UPA boat every time the Left acted truant, which they did quite often.

The bickering grew louder around the same time last year when the Left started to fume over Government’s Nuclear deal with the USA. Strangely, while the Left mascots like Sitaram Yechury and Prakash Karat have been enthralling the television crews with interesting bytes, they have spared little time in articulating their viewpoints on why on earth they are opposing the N Deal – I wish I had seen a pamphlet on this. Now they say they would go on a nation-wide agitation – if a Left leader comes to me I will ask him why has he been snoring over it all these months and not done anything more than lip and media byte service.

I wonder what Left plans beyond this. If their best wish of pulling down the government comes true, then what? I suspect we’ll have an election, and then what. The Left block, which have been gloating over its bullying stature, would surely end up with far few seats than it grabbed the last time for people would sniff their bluff and are bound to give them a drubbing. And then? The Left would be back in business sniffing at alternatives – I suspect, for them the ideal situation would be a non-Congress, non-BJP alternative and they would not mind cajoling a relatively docile UNPA (United National Progressive Alliance a group of many small regional parties). Unfortunately for the Left with the SP going the Congress way and the relationship likely to last till after the next elections, the possibility of UNPA and Left arriving at the magical number of 271 MPs to claim formation of government appears dim. So the Left going it solo, without resting on the arms of Congress or BJP, is ruled out. Then what?

Two possibilities. One, BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) does fairly well and comes back to power. Fine for the Left as it would continue to oppose anything and everything as per its political genetics. Two, UPA comes back to power, with some elements of UNPA gravitating towards it and adding to its statistical comfort. In both these scenario Left is likely to get politically marginalized. And then what.

Amid all these possibilities one thing that will pinch the Left the most is that the Nuclear Deal will eventually go through. How sad!

Seal the deal...

The deal is done. At last. Ending days of intense speculation and moving swiftly, India’s regional Samajwadi Party (SP) finally came to the rescue of a jittery United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government at the Centre which had been held hostage by its Left partners for over a year over the Nuke deal with the United States of America. Finally, ending months of bickering it is apparent the two political allies would part ways sometime soon and if that happens the UPA government needs stated support of other groups to ensure that it has the requisite majority to continue in the Government as per the provisions of the Indian Constitution. The SP, a strong regional outfit in country’s most populous northern state of Uttar Pradesh (UP), has come forward, in what is being seen as major political re-alignment, and is all set to pull the government out of a major crisis and a major international embarrassment.

In the process the SP has ensured two things: One it has resurrected its lost prestige – from absolute bewilderment four years, ago when the then ascendant UPA had snubbed the party, to a party which has turned a Saviour. Two it has ensured, it’s back in the power matrix. After getting a thrashing at UP Assembly polls in 2007, where another regional outfit Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) under its leader Mayawati had emerged a handsome winner, many had begun to wonder about the fate of SP. But the party under the leadership of former Indian Defence Minister and Chief Minister of UP Mulayam Singh Yadav is back with its clout. It is not yet clear if SP would join the Union Cabinet but it is certainly clear that it will wield tremendous influence in the remaining life of the government. And why not. Today, thanks to SP’s generous political drips, UPA government which had been on tenterhooks and sneezed every time Left leaders caught a cold looks in pink of health and is breathing well enough to last its full term till early next year (2009).
Indian political observers, who seem busy at the moment to comment on the new political re-alignment, may soon begin to ponder on what it means in the long-run for country’s coalition politics. Few trends could be as follows.

A beleaguered Congress, which has been losing state after state since it was catapulted back in the Centre in a dramatic reversal of fortunes four years ago replacing Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), realize it needs to strengthen its rainbow of coalition if it has to be in contention after the next General Elections expected in March-April 2009.

The addition of SP into the fold of UPA and next few months of working relationship is likely to foster a much better chemistry between the two parties and may also improve Congress’s sagging fortunes in the Hindi heartland – empirical evidence suggests that parties which perform well in this Hindi heartland of UP can often dictate the way wind will blow at the Centre. Congress stands to gain perhaps as much as SP out of this new re-alignment.

It is also critical to note the emergence of a new entity called UNPA or United National Progressive Alliance, which is another rainbow of regional outfits sprung in the aftermath of formation of UPA in an attempt to create what is known in India as a credible Third Front – in India Congress and BJP have been two major national parties which have hogged the limelights as far as formation of a national government is concerned. SP incidentally was the chief architect of this grouping and it was, rather it is, based on the premise of providing a non-Congress, non-BJP alternative at the Centre – such experiment has seen installation of two prime ministers in the country in the past, both of which could not last too long. Some of the elements of this group such as TDP and INLD were strong partners of the BJP-led NDA.

The drifting of SP towards Congress and UPA could possibly mean, and politics they say is a game of unlimited possibilities, that at a future point some of the elements of the light-weight UNPA may get attracted towards the UPA as well. SP can certainly be expected to play a big role as and when it may happen – for records though Om Prakash Chauthala who heads Haryana’s Indian National Lok Dal’s (INLD) declared on Saturday that UNPA would continue as it is and SP’s realignment doesn’t dampen their spirits. But that’s today and who knows how he sees the tomorrow.

One must also remember, UPA boasts of some of the finest political strategists like Lalu Yadav (of Bihar’s Rashtriya Janata Dal or RJD), Karunanidhi (of Tamil Nadu’s Dravida Munita Kazhigam or DMK) and Sharad Pawar (of Maharashtra’s Nationalist Congress Party or NCP) and the addition of Mulayam-Amar duo would add to its strength. Incidentally, one is not sure how much effect the group’s anti-BJP tirade and ranting of secular credentials would create. In the months leading to the next General Elections, UPA would have to ponder on some bigger, brighter agenda and given the rainbow of political leaders that UPA have it may not be difficult. If nothing else, the UPA has certainly implemented some best policy interventions to empower the poor and the destitute and they can certainly make right and big noise about its programmes such as National Rural Employment Guarantee A and Farm Loan Waiver for indebted farmers to name a few.

Right-wing BJP, which nurtures a big dream of staking its claim at the centre after the next elections, is certainly a worried lot and despite its winning streak in recent past it will have to continue devising means to garner decent numbers in order to form a government.

Nuke cacophony rages on...

I just changed my status message in my Gmail chat to Nuke Cacophony. At New Delhi, the rattle around the N-deal has become unbearable and the drama turned dreadful. Political analysts have a field day. Television has serious stories to chase, finally. Politicians of all hues are trying to sniff opportunity. Congress is desperate to save the government and an embarrassment to the Prime Minister; Left seems to have hit a dead-end vis a vis more options it can throw at the UPA; BJP thinks inflation coupled with this confusion would add to the disenchantment of the middle class; Samajwadi Party wants to bolster its position as it has been out of power matrix in both Uttar Pradesh where it ruled till Mayawati took over in 2007 and in Centre.

It seems imminent Left would attempt at snuffing UPA out of it breath but the grouping and the government it supports would survive with SP drippings. The government would complete its full term and elections would not happen before 2009.

However, the cacophony that rages on leaves common people dumbfounded and makes them wonder if this is what political parties and leaders are best at doing. Little surprise India’s is called a queer country with, what Newsweek said in its special issue (July 7/14, 2008), a “messy democracy.”

I wonder what this question compromising India’s national security means. Those who raise the question perhaps wish to send the impression, and a messy one, that the democratically elected Prime Minister of the country and his able Cabinet have stooped to a level where they do not care what’s right or wrong for the country. It’s understood when you ask for a fair debate – the UPA is as responsible for the haze over many finer points of the Nuke deal as the Opposition parties – but taking it to levels of ridiculous accusations is nothing but a slap on the faith of people.

I am sure many of us did not expect such pervert bickering of politicians on such crucial issue as the Nuke deal. And the sad reality is that its end does not seem in sight. Not till the Prime Minister has come back after attending the G8 Summit on July 10.