The Red Rebels who zealously guarded against the passage of the Indo-US Nuclear deal have finally waved the Red flag bringing to end over four years of its bitter togetherness with the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance government. Top Left leaders of CPI (M), CPI, Forward Bloc and RSP met President Pratibha Patil Wednesday and submitted separate letters on behalf of their outfits withdrawing support, along with a joint letter asking her to "direct the Prime Minister to seek a vote of confidence in the Lok Sabha immediately."
A group of Left parties elected representatives (Member of Parliament or MP) drawn primarily from West Bengal, Kerala and Tripura had extended their support to the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government at the Centre enabling them to secure the mandatory Constitutional majority in the Parliament after the 2004 general elections. strangely, from the word go the alliance seemed worrying forged as it was on the loud objective of preventing the “communal forces” at bay in an apparent reference to right-wing Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP). In the months that followed the ideological discomfort of the Left over a host of policy issues kept resurfacing at alarming frequency. The Left which was a critical ally of the Union government slammed it on a host of social and economic issues exposing the big chink and raised more than eyebrows on the longevity of the government. Some astute maneuvering by the Congress managers and its other strong allies such as Lalu Yadav and Karunanidhi managed to salvage the UPA boat every time the Left acted truant, which they did quite often.
The bickering grew louder around the same time last year when the Left started to fume over Government’s Nuclear deal with the USA. Strangely, while the Left mascots like Sitaram Yechury and Prakash Karat have been enthralling the television crews with interesting bytes, they have spared little time in articulating their viewpoints on why on earth they are opposing the N Deal – I wish I had seen a pamphlet on this. Now they say they would go on a nation-wide agitation – if a Left leader comes to me I will ask him why has he been snoring over it all these months and not done anything more than lip and media byte service.
I wonder what Left plans beyond this. If their best wish of pulling down the government comes true, then what? I suspect we’ll have an election, and then what. The Left block, which have been gloating over its bullying stature, would surely end up with far few seats than it grabbed the last time for people would sniff their bluff and are bound to give them a drubbing. And then? The Left would be back in business sniffing at alternatives – I suspect, for them the ideal situation would be a non-Congress, non-BJP alternative and they would not mind cajoling a relatively docile UNPA (United National Progressive Alliance a group of many small regional parties). Unfortunately for the Left with the SP going the Congress way and the relationship likely to last till after the next elections, the possibility of UNPA and Left arriving at the magical number of 271 MPs to claim formation of government appears dim. So the Left going it solo, without resting on the arms of Congress or BJP, is ruled out. Then what?
Two possibilities. One, BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) does fairly well and comes back to power. Fine for the Left as it would continue to oppose anything and everything as per its political genetics. Two, UPA comes back to power, with some elements of UNPA gravitating towards it and adding to its statistical comfort. In both these scenario Left is likely to get politically marginalized. And then what.
Amid all these possibilities one thing that will pinch the Left the most is that the Nuclear Deal will eventually go through. How sad!
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