Reading and scruitinising media analysis of fragmentation of national political coalitions in recent weeks, I somehow think they want us to believe that both the Congress and BJP are like a decked-up bridegroom who has been deserted just ahead of the marriage ceremony. In fact, there is logic in such metaphors as well; Only that I would want to look at it differently.
To me, regional parties are engaged in a fierce mind game with the mainstream parties. They are also striving hard to enhance their opportunity index and inch ahead in enlarging their regional aspirations. And why not, purists would profess, for democracy is all about accommodating diverse ambitions and egos!
However, the end-game of this mind game is inescapable: we shall yet again see a convergence of interests and the two formations, United Progressive Alliance (UPA) led by the Congress and National Democratic Alliance (NDA) steered by Bhartiya Janta Party, shall come back into reckoning much like in 2004.
However, agonized the bridegroom may appear to the media, the fact is the two mainstream parties too are alarmed of their dwindling pan-India relevance and even though belatedly, are determined to up the ante. This time round, the bridegroom is willing to suffer the bride’s paroxysms rather than concede too much.
The trend began with fragmentation of the NDA bloc. The formation, which ran the national government for five years between 1999 and 2004, started to disintegrate just when the murmurs of 15th Parliamentary elections began in late 2008 and a bunch of regional leaders started nurturing the idea of sewing together a formidable formation. The Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), two strong parties in Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu respectively, quit the bloc. Kannada kingmaker and one of the most mercurial politicians of all times, HD Deve Gowda too aligned with his southern brethren and his JD S party decided to spearhead the Third Front.
The trend continued with Orissa’s Biju Janata Dal (BJD), which along with BJP has been in power for nine years in the eastern state, deciding last month to chart its solo course. They are all seemingly gravitating towards the enigma called Third Front, which by now has become a synonym for a parking bay for regional parties before they chug on to the functional runway.
It is not that the BJP could not have conceded the space demanded by BJD in Orissa. The question is: was BJP willing to concede any bit. I think no, and they did it by design.
The story is somewhat similar in the other major bloc, UPA. There is much brouhaha over the “desertions” by the cow-belt satraps trio Lalu Yadav, Ram Vilas Paswan and Mulayam Singh Yadav. Their respective parties, Rashtriya Janata Dal, Lok Janshakti Party and Samajwadi Party, have decided to go alone in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh which sends 120 members to the Parliament. A tiny PMK, whose leader Anbumani Ramadoss was the Health Minister in the UPA government and enjoys good relations with Prime Minister and other senior Congress leaders too has decided to realign with AIADMK – in 2004 it was in electoral alliance with the other major party in Tamil Nadu, Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam or DMK, which is in power in the state now.
If media analyses are to be believed the Congress has been decimated and has been reduced to nothingness by the might and mischief of these powerful regional satraps of UP and Bihar.
I suspect if this is as simple. The Congress, which has played bonhomie with these leaders and know them too well, is wanting to test waters on its own this time. They know there is a palpable paralysis among the party cadre in states like UP and Bihar and time may be running out for them. One sure way to resuscitate the party and bring life back into local leadership is to contest elections. In fact, there is little talk of it now, but a decade ago based on its bitter alliance experiences the Congress had decided go it alone of what was famously known as the Pachmarhi Declaration of 1998.
Congress, much like the BJP, knows that post elections all these smaller regional parties will eventually need to erect an umbrella. They can surely be the spoke; the bigger canvas will have to come from either of the two.
Thanks to their bloated egos and towering aspirations, all these formations seem too feeble to garner enough coherence and conviction to stand united and run a national government. The Left bloc, which many feel, will become the pivot of such an initiative may have to contend with yet another loss, after their major face off with Congress over the passage of Nuclear Agreement in Parliament last year.
Alas! The bridegroom knows, the marriage will have to happen, and will rather wait. The bride knows too well, it will have to come eventually to the marriage canopy and chant the mantras with the bridegroom.
It is that momentary freeze before the formidable thaw. Onlookers and partygoers keep watching.
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