I am perplexed as a frog at the sudden lull in political bickering these days. Barring few byte barbs at each other over Hindu vs Muslim terrorism, mainstream political parties seem to have arrived at a consensus on a momentary shift in focus. Not surprisingly all the raging issues from inflation to nuke deal, north versus west, job losses to economic recession and bad economics which so prominently featured in political discourses have strikingly disappeared from national political consciousness.
The focus has shifted to six state elections and rightly so.
Polls for state assemblies are due in Chhatisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Delhi, Mizoram and J & K over next few weeks and top political brass is busy devising means of grabbing power there.
By December 8 we shall know the outcome in these state elections which are being dubbed as the semi finals before the final of the General Elections to be held by April 2009. Mainstream Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) which has been on a winning spree in states since the incumbent United Progressive Alliance (UPA) led by the Indian National Congress came to power in 2004 is eyeing a repeat performance. Subsequently, it would aim to grab power at the centre with its coalition partners under the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) umbrella which earlier ruled from 1999 to 2004.
The Congress, despite having introduced some brilliant social and populist schemes such as National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (NREGA) and Civilian Nuclear Agreement with USA, is visibly on the back foot and would be hoping the rule of anti-incumbency swings results in its favour in Rajasthan, Chhatisgarh and Madhya Pradesh. The timing of the elections could not have been worse for the party. Price rise, internal security and economic slowdown have created an atmosphere of gloom among large swathe of people and the mood is bound to get transmitted onto the ballot papers, or yes, the Electronic Voting Machines. I know for myself, I am perturbed at the state of our security in recent past.
The elections are also crucial for Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), which is in power in the most populous state of Uttar Pradesh (UP), and is led by a fiery leader and UP chief minister Mayawati. The party which is credited with devising a unique social engineering formula and has made rapid strides in recent past is set to spoil the party for both Congress and BJP in at least four states except Mizoram and J&K. The party sits pretty on its strong vote bank of Dalits and other marginalized groups, has been able to enlarge its rainbow by drawing support from many upper and lower caste groupings of the Indian society. Caste affiliations incidentally play the most crucial role in Indian elections most of the places. BSP exhibited its power in Delhi municipal elections last year by grabbing an impressive 10% vote share and in the process jeopardizing Congress’s prospects. BJP won the municipal elections with impressive margins.
While the elections would as usual spring in some surprises and certainly set the tone for the General Elections, I would be keenly watching BSP’s game plan and gains. While it will not be in a position to come to power anywhere, it has the potential to spring surpsies. Will it?
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