Congress cup of woes overflows

India's Election's Commission has announced elections to six states. Many believe this will be the great semi finals before the final, General Elections in 2009. True, elections in northern states of Delhi, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh (MP) and Chhattisgarh will surely set the tone for General Elections. Outcomes in Mizoram and J&K will not be that significant. Empirical evidence suggests that anti-incumbency plays a major role in Indian elections barring few exceptions of Communist-ruled states. Going by that formula, Congress which won 48/70, 51/200, 39/172 and 34/91 seats in Delhi, Rajasthan, MP and Chhattisgarh respectively stand a fair chance in the latter three states barring Delhi, where it has been in government for past two terms now. The BJP had secured 19, 123, 172 and 52 seats respectively in these states, literally wiping out Congress in MP and Rajasthan while retaining a comfortable majority in Chhattisgarh.

Going by sentiments of people and assessment of political observers the situation in these states is as following: Congress seems poised to make a comeback in Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and MP, more comfortably in the first two states than the third.

In Delhi it is almost certain to lose and an indication to this came in the municipal elections last year when BJP routed Congress, exhibiting people’s mood for a change. The magic of Sheila Dikshit, who tickled people’s imagination for 10 years in a row, now seems to be waning. In MP, however, BJP’s Shivraj Singh Chauhan is working overnight to ensure a return. Congress which is witness to a high-powered tussle for top post – Digvijay Singh, Suresh Pachauri, Jyotiraditya Scindia are all contenders – is seemingly losing the edge and may end up an also-ran in end. In both Delhi and MP, BSP will play a spoilsport and the damage would be more telling on the Congress party. Uma Bharti may inflict some harm to BJP in MP as well. In the two relatively less significant states, regional players are likely to call the shots: NC in J&K and MNF in Mizoram are preferred choice.

At the end of it, the two main parties Congress and BJP will seem equally poised for the big game. However, at a psychological level the BJP will be far more ebullient than Congress given the present state of affairs.

Congress and UPA have far more worries than it could have imagined. Barely had it emerged out of the internal security crisis when the market meltdown brought the government under edgy eyes of the Great Indian Middle Class. Political parties know well that the vocal middle class holds a lot of relevance, if not the numerical strength, certainly the capacity to influence public opinions. Today the mood in Indian cities range from disillusionment to frustration. The euphoria of the new economy boom and surging Sensex have given way to skepticism and jittery eyes at the future. The Jet saga has acted as a curtain raiser for the state of affairs to unfold. The Finance Minister has failed to impress and enthuse confidence despite his articulate “stay invested” and “all is well with fundamentals of our economy” assertions.

The psychology of fear created by a spate of bomb blasts in last few months has left many Indians panicky especially in the urban centres. The rural poor are yet to realize the benefits of schemes like NREGA and Farmers’ Debt Waiver. The overall mood is solemn. The zeal of the Nuclear Deal is long over and people seem to be questioning which is the next crisis they are likely to face.

The alliance partners of UPA, notably the new ones, have made matters worse. In their bid to woo the Muslim voters in UP, SP seems to have gone overboard and has taken the encounter debate to new level of absurdities. Congress too has been mired by its internal contradictions and one has rarely seen a concrete statement from a senior leader. Vote bank politics has led to a crisis of confidence of political parties and Congress and its partners seem worst affected by it at the moment. For large part of Indian middle class this dubious stance of the Congress of trying to woo the Muslims is becoming painful. Worse for them, the Muslims are neither too gung-ho about the party and many local leaders exhibited this sentiment in Jamia Nagar recently when they openly vowed to wipe out Congress from power. Congress is caught between devil and the deep sea.

BJP is surely trying to capitalize on the inherent contradictions of the Congress. The recent debate over ban of Bajrang Dal, if seen in conjunction with brouhaha over terrorism, is sure to give a push to BJP’s Hindutva agenda. Apparently, BJP is preparing deadly ammunition of failures of government vis a vis Aam Aadmi be it on internal, economic or social security, spiraling prices and host of local issues to be used during the elections. Many say partly due to their misdeeds and partly some unforeseen calamities – who would have predicted the fall of the market at this point of time – Congress has been pushed to a corner now.

Not all may be lost as yet for the party however. It is still few months away from the General Elections and if the party is aware it can do a lot of damage control. But Congress is known to commit serious political mistakes and it would need close to a miracle for the party to get out of the present mess. One has to remember, Congress is not only struggling to keep its flock together – DMK is the latest irritant for the party even as the cries of SP over Batla encounter is far from over – but also it pitted against some formidable and shrewd opponents such as Mayawati. The party appeared crawling after Mayawati played a masterstroke of challenging the mighty Sonia Gandhi. Whatever skeptics might say, she had capitalized on this posturing and her voters yet again realized this is one lady who does not wink in confronting the mightiest.

Congress, which strands smothered in critical Uttar Pradesh, instead of making the most out of this outburst of Mayawati stood satisfied with some mere glib-talks from New Delhi. One would have expected any shrewd politician to make the most out of it by launching protests demonstrations against Mayawati in UP. Instead of making a hasty retreat Sonia Gandhi should have stayed on and infused some vigour into the lifeless cadres there. But they made a monumental blunder.

In weeks ahead the party will face many trickier situations. We’ll have to wait and watch whether the age-old party further shrinks in significance or chugs along with the present damages.