Act on internal security first, energy would follow

In India, this past week was marked by two significant developments which could pose serious implications for short and long-term politics.

First the historic Indo-US civilian nuclear agreement has inched closer to its logical conclusion. Only do a few formalities remain before the agreement is signed which in turn would catapult India into the league of the super power nations and would also add lot of pride to India’s standing in the world. It is a major feat for the Manmohan Singh government – a coalition led by the Indian National Congress called United Progressive Alliance in power at Centre since 2004 – and in months ahead leading to the General Elections 2009 we are certain to see lot of hubbub around this issue. The UPA would want to get the best electoral gains out of this historic Indo-US Civilain Nuclear Agreement, which would pave the way for generation of nuclear power in the country among others.

But all the gains and hopes around this deal could get dashed given a second development that has left the whole nation jittery and nervous. From Kashmir to Orissa, Karnataka, Gujarat and Delhi, internal security is deteriorating everyday and the government seems increasingly feeble and incompetent in tackling it. Nothing affects people more than their immediate well being and the Congress knows it too well. When price of onions and bad roads could unseat governments, this one pertains to life and death.

Delhi serial blasts and explosions in recent past have made a mockery of government’s handling of terror. People are being mauled at will, terror groups are having a free run, violence has become a buzzword and people are feeling insecure like never before. What is worse the government has done little to contain any of these deviant acts – be it the open war cry against Indian state by Kashmiri separatists at Sri Nagar’s Lal Chowk, defiant groups killing innocent mercilessly in Kandhamal and Karnataka, terror groups planting bombs at a drop of the hat, Naxalites’ blowing up police posts at a wink and Muslim groups’ open and blatant challenge to the State. Even as I write this I learn of a gruesome act by Maoists in northeastern state of Chhattisgarh – they have triggered a landmine blast blowing up a Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) vehicle hours before the President of India was to visit the region.

All we have following all such acts is nothing more than ritualistic one-liners from leaders that lack both in conviction and courage. PM Singh and Congress chief Sonia Gandhi have issues fancy one-liners after Delhi was rattled yet again – twice in a fortnight – this past Saturday.

Elections are round the corner and all the good things that UPA government may have done will come down crumbling if situation on ground related to security of people does not improve. Time is running out for the government. One wonders a government which can’t even nudge one of its weakest Home Ministers in recent past to come out of slumber, would be able to take strong, immediate and effective measures.

If the Congress wishes to capitalize on the historic agreement with US and so many good things it has done during its stint at the Centre, it must tell its people first that it can provide a secure environment so that they are better able to relish the fruits of energy security.

Internal security far outweighs energy security and perhaps UPA would learn it the hard way.

Opposition and especially Bhartiya Janata Party, meanwhile, are having a ball of a time.

Will Singh remain a King?

Today morning when I opened my email, I got a mail from one of my journalist friend from Chandigarh with a huge picture as attachment and “Singh is King” as the subject line. As I opened the picture I was shocked at the first glance but could not stop myself from laughing loudly at last. The picture was actually the poster from the recently released film “Singh is King” and in place of original actor’s and actress’s face it was none other than our PM Manmohan Singh raising his right hand high and holding Sonia Gandhi with his left hand.

True Singh really turned out to be a King and also shunned the notion that he was a political novice. However, his real test would be during the next elections when lot of these issue that we have seen playing in July would come back haunting to him: most notably the note-for-vote scam.

As we get set to witness the next general election, it is also time for us to closely watch the political maneuverings. It would be interesting to watch how the many regional parties shape up in the run up to the elections. It is pertinent to note that in the final analysis, all these parties would have to gravitate towards either UPA or NDA. It would be too premature to talk of UNPA as its constituents are known for their consistent inconsistency.

It would be too premature also, for instance, to think that Mayawati would remain aligned to UNPA and so on, not to ask of smaller parties like TRS (which is already hobnobbing with BJP), TDP, AGP and INLD.

Only time will tell.

By Monish Mazumdar

UPA punctures Karat's bloated ego, NDA scurrys for cover

Notwithstanding the many controversies surrounding it and high-pitched moral clatter by media and political double-standards, the two-day Parliament session turned out to be a bold statement on current political situation. The Congress and SP emerged as clear winners, adept at political realignments and wooing fence-sitters. Despite their high moral grounds BJP stood miserably exposed and has lots to worry about its pack ahead of the next General Elections.

The scenes unfolded as per the script. The two-day session of Indian Parliament, as expected, turned out to be a tumultuous one with all the ingredients making it resemble a sordid Bollywood flick: drama, suspense, vulgarity and an uncanny climax. It would be unfair to say it did not have its moment of glory as well: speeches of Omar Abdullah, Rahul Gandhi, Lalu Yadav, Pranab Mukherjee and Asdaduddin Owaisi certainly added moments of sparkle in the otherwise gloomy session on July 21 & 22 called by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to seek a Trust Vote before his government goes ahead with the crucial Safeguards Agreement negotiations with IAEA a vital step leading to the formal announcement of Indo-US Civilian Nuclear Agreement.

Ugly scenes and uglier consequences

The climax turned out to be the most melodramatic, as if straight from the sleeves of a creepy director who sees little beyond the immediate. Three BJP MPs waving wads of currency pretending as if they were the only epitome of integrity in this country of deceitful people was certainly a dark moment in the history of Indian Parliament. One wonders if the idiotic scenes could yield much except fanning the already severe antipathy of people for the political class. For the BJP which may have thought this act of its three MPs to be a masterstroke – with the backing of senior leader L K Advani – the plot went horribly awry.

UPA punctures Karat’s bloated ego

The UPA won, as was largely believed, and by a respectable margins. One was aghast at the brazen embracing of morality by all and sundry, journalists included, and suddenly the air was filled with bickering on how the Trust Vote had turned into Distrust and what not. Whatever the skeptics may say, the verdict was out: UPA had won and had severed an injurious blow to the ballooning self-esteem of CPI M’s Prakash Karat, who despite never winning even a municipal elections, had taken it upon himself to dwarf the soaring ambition of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on the Indo-US Civilian Nuclear Agreement.

As it transpires now the nuisance created by Karat all these months did not have any ideological basis – many believed that this man stood firm on an ideology and hence the opposition to Nuclear deal – but rather emanated from his whims, which many believe could have a root somewhere in China! (We shall return to this in a subsequent posting) What else would explain his desperate attempts at cobbling up disparate elements to pose a ‘formidable’ frontal attack on the UPA government at the floor of the Parliament.

In the end, nothing of this materialized. The Left got a humiliating repartee and so did the BJP. BSP too got a blow despite the heroics of its leader Mayawati. Rest did not matter.

UPA, SP net gainers

The two clear gainers were UPA and especially the Congress and SP. It’s well known Manmohan Singh had made it a personal issue and his party had soon fallen into toeing his line, which is nothing short of historic. Had the UPA and Congress lost this battle, the Opposition camp would have been upbeat. While the Left would have taken a strong moral ground, NDA and especially BJP would have gone to town pooh-poohing the government over its “minority” status and “weak” dealing of the Nuclear Agreement. Ahead of the elections, this would have demoralized the Congress which is already not too high on the electoral front having lost over a dozen state Assemblies since it rode back to Centre in a dramatic reversal of fortunes after the 2004 General Elections.

SP too gained, both from a short-term and a long-term perspective. In the short-run, it reasserted itself as a responsible party with a progressive outlook and not jumping over to the Opposition camp just for the heck of it. SP stands to gain, much like the Congress, by tying an electoral knot for UP.

UP and Bihar continue to be crucial for forming a government at the Centre and SP will play a crucial role in the elections which is likely early 2009. Anti-incumbency would have begun to crawl in and Mayawati in her new avatar as a ‘leader’ of a pack of maverick politicians could be found wavering on UP and instead expanding her all-India base in a bid to become a high-potential choice for Prime Minister’s post. SP and Congress could turn out to be a strategically important combination in UP and the two would stand to gain significantly if they play their cards well. For Mulayam Singh Yadav this is a high-stake battle and he would leave little to chance.

The New Third Front leading nowhere

One can’t miss the brouhaha over the New Third Front, with Mayawati at the Front, as Times of India said the other day. While political enthusiasts are quick to juggle out figures – together they have over 85 MPs in the Parliament – to evaluate the might of this 10-party Front, there are finer points that the analysts may be missing. Put simply, the Third Front is nothing but an assortment of opportunistic leaders and its very basis is weak. The fact that it’s not driven by any political agenda and ideology – except of course defeating UPA at the parliament’s special session – and has sprung up in less time than needed to spell New Third Front could shed enough light on its longevity. It’s a wild conglomerate of temperamental and dissipated political opportunism and has little significance whatsoever in the longer run – how can we expect a party like TDP, which is opposed to the creation of a Telangana state within Andhra Pradesh, working together with TRS, whose genesis is based on the demand for such a state. Can we expect Karat’s bloated ego, as we have seen him all these years, align with an equally mercurial Mayawati? Can we expect Ajit Singh to stick with this assortment till the end or Om Prakash Chauthala not to get lured by the NDA? Third Front is a bag full of contradictions, as it stands today.

At least this is what the NDA and even UPA would want this conglomerate turns out to be. For any rise of an equally effective rainbow of political parties would make the roads to Raisina Hills more torturous for the BJP or Congress.

A lull has descended on the political horizon after a hurricane that swept it whole of this week. But this will be short-lived. Soon, all the parties would fan out to design their scripts for the next big drama: 2009 General Elections.