Jharkhand: Exemplifying derision of democracy

Events in Jharkhand are perplexing and painful at the same time. News reports say after its initial hiccups and subsequent subservience to JMM’s Shibu Soren, BJP is mulling withdrawing support Monday.

It could have done well to be more circumspect in the first instance, before committing itself to tie the knot with JMM, in what is seen as an incessant craving for power.

We all know how in the past the state has bled owing to apathy and disdain of the political class. A stable government has eluded the state and so has development. My friends across party lines – in politics and outside of it – have spoken brazenly of how the state offers wonderful opportunity for all those looking for some quick bucks. I was told we could do some quick business, earn a booty and make merry. There are many who have done this, some are still doing, few contemplating.

The otherwise rich state continues to perish under this agonizing derision of people, institutions.

As we celebrate six decades of independence, I continue to wonder if this is for real! Democracy, an ideal that we are all so gung-ho about, continues to get mocked at, bullied, and raped.

Time we did something.

Will BSP spring a surprise at state polls

I am perplexed as a frog at the sudden lull in political bickering these days. Barring few byte barbs at each other over Hindu vs Muslim terrorism, mainstream political parties seem to have arrived at a consensus on a momentary shift in focus. Not surprisingly all the raging issues from inflation to nuke deal, north versus west, job losses to economic recession and bad economics which so prominently featured in political discourses have strikingly disappeared from national political consciousness.

The focus has shifted to six state elections and rightly so.

Polls for state assemblies are due in Chhatisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Delhi, Mizoram and J & K over next few weeks and top political brass is busy devising means of grabbing power there.

By December 8 we shall know the outcome in these state elections which are being dubbed as the semi finals before the final of the General Elections to be held by April 2009. Mainstream Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) which has been on a winning spree in states since the incumbent United Progressive Alliance (UPA) led by the Indian National Congress came to power in 2004 is eyeing a repeat performance. Subsequently, it would aim to grab power at the centre with its coalition partners under the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) umbrella which earlier ruled from 1999 to 2004.

The Congress, despite having introduced some brilliant social and populist schemes such as National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (NREGA) and Civilian Nuclear Agreement with USA, is visibly on the back foot and would be hoping the rule of anti-incumbency swings results in its favour in Rajasthan, Chhatisgarh and Madhya Pradesh. The timing of the elections could not have been worse for the party. Price rise, internal security and economic slowdown have created an atmosphere of gloom among large swathe of people and the mood is bound to get transmitted onto the ballot papers, or yes, the Electronic Voting Machines. I know for myself, I am perturbed at the state of our security in recent past.

The elections are also crucial for Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), which is in power in the most populous state of Uttar Pradesh (UP), and is led by a fiery leader and UP chief minister Mayawati. The party which is credited with devising a unique social engineering formula and has made rapid strides in recent past is set to spoil the party for both Congress and BJP in at least four states except Mizoram and J&K. The party sits pretty on its strong vote bank of Dalits and other marginalized groups, has been able to enlarge its rainbow by drawing support from many upper and lower caste groupings of the Indian society. Caste affiliations incidentally play the most crucial role in Indian elections most of the places. BSP exhibited its power in Delhi municipal elections last year by grabbing an impressive 10% vote share and in the process jeopardizing Congress’s prospects. BJP won the municipal elections with impressive margins.

While the elections would as usual spring in some surprises and certainly set the tone for the General Elections, I would be keenly watching BSP’s game plan and gains. While it will not be in a position to come to power anywhere, it has the potential to spring surpsies. Will it?

Congress cup of woes overflows

India's Election's Commission has announced elections to six states. Many believe this will be the great semi finals before the final, General Elections in 2009. True, elections in northern states of Delhi, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh (MP) and Chhattisgarh will surely set the tone for General Elections. Outcomes in Mizoram and J&K will not be that significant. Empirical evidence suggests that anti-incumbency plays a major role in Indian elections barring few exceptions of Communist-ruled states. Going by that formula, Congress which won 48/70, 51/200, 39/172 and 34/91 seats in Delhi, Rajasthan, MP and Chhattisgarh respectively stand a fair chance in the latter three states barring Delhi, where it has been in government for past two terms now. The BJP had secured 19, 123, 172 and 52 seats respectively in these states, literally wiping out Congress in MP and Rajasthan while retaining a comfortable majority in Chhattisgarh.

Going by sentiments of people and assessment of political observers the situation in these states is as following: Congress seems poised to make a comeback in Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and MP, more comfortably in the first two states than the third.

In Delhi it is almost certain to lose and an indication to this came in the municipal elections last year when BJP routed Congress, exhibiting people’s mood for a change. The magic of Sheila Dikshit, who tickled people’s imagination for 10 years in a row, now seems to be waning. In MP, however, BJP’s Shivraj Singh Chauhan is working overnight to ensure a return. Congress which is witness to a high-powered tussle for top post – Digvijay Singh, Suresh Pachauri, Jyotiraditya Scindia are all contenders – is seemingly losing the edge and may end up an also-ran in end. In both Delhi and MP, BSP will play a spoilsport and the damage would be more telling on the Congress party. Uma Bharti may inflict some harm to BJP in MP as well. In the two relatively less significant states, regional players are likely to call the shots: NC in J&K and MNF in Mizoram are preferred choice.

At the end of it, the two main parties Congress and BJP will seem equally poised for the big game. However, at a psychological level the BJP will be far more ebullient than Congress given the present state of affairs.

Congress and UPA have far more worries than it could have imagined. Barely had it emerged out of the internal security crisis when the market meltdown brought the government under edgy eyes of the Great Indian Middle Class. Political parties know well that the vocal middle class holds a lot of relevance, if not the numerical strength, certainly the capacity to influence public opinions. Today the mood in Indian cities range from disillusionment to frustration. The euphoria of the new economy boom and surging Sensex have given way to skepticism and jittery eyes at the future. The Jet saga has acted as a curtain raiser for the state of affairs to unfold. The Finance Minister has failed to impress and enthuse confidence despite his articulate “stay invested” and “all is well with fundamentals of our economy” assertions.

The psychology of fear created by a spate of bomb blasts in last few months has left many Indians panicky especially in the urban centres. The rural poor are yet to realize the benefits of schemes like NREGA and Farmers’ Debt Waiver. The overall mood is solemn. The zeal of the Nuclear Deal is long over and people seem to be questioning which is the next crisis they are likely to face.

The alliance partners of UPA, notably the new ones, have made matters worse. In their bid to woo the Muslim voters in UP, SP seems to have gone overboard and has taken the encounter debate to new level of absurdities. Congress too has been mired by its internal contradictions and one has rarely seen a concrete statement from a senior leader. Vote bank politics has led to a crisis of confidence of political parties and Congress and its partners seem worst affected by it at the moment. For large part of Indian middle class this dubious stance of the Congress of trying to woo the Muslims is becoming painful. Worse for them, the Muslims are neither too gung-ho about the party and many local leaders exhibited this sentiment in Jamia Nagar recently when they openly vowed to wipe out Congress from power. Congress is caught between devil and the deep sea.

BJP is surely trying to capitalize on the inherent contradictions of the Congress. The recent debate over ban of Bajrang Dal, if seen in conjunction with brouhaha over terrorism, is sure to give a push to BJP’s Hindutva agenda. Apparently, BJP is preparing deadly ammunition of failures of government vis a vis Aam Aadmi be it on internal, economic or social security, spiraling prices and host of local issues to be used during the elections. Many say partly due to their misdeeds and partly some unforeseen calamities – who would have predicted the fall of the market at this point of time – Congress has been pushed to a corner now.

Not all may be lost as yet for the party however. It is still few months away from the General Elections and if the party is aware it can do a lot of damage control. But Congress is known to commit serious political mistakes and it would need close to a miracle for the party to get out of the present mess. One has to remember, Congress is not only struggling to keep its flock together – DMK is the latest irritant for the party even as the cries of SP over Batla encounter is far from over – but also it pitted against some formidable and shrewd opponents such as Mayawati. The party appeared crawling after Mayawati played a masterstroke of challenging the mighty Sonia Gandhi. Whatever skeptics might say, she had capitalized on this posturing and her voters yet again realized this is one lady who does not wink in confronting the mightiest.

Congress, which strands smothered in critical Uttar Pradesh, instead of making the most out of this outburst of Mayawati stood satisfied with some mere glib-talks from New Delhi. One would have expected any shrewd politician to make the most out of it by launching protests demonstrations against Mayawati in UP. Instead of making a hasty retreat Sonia Gandhi should have stayed on and infused some vigour into the lifeless cadres there. But they made a monumental blunder.

In weeks ahead the party will face many trickier situations. We’ll have to wait and watch whether the age-old party further shrinks in significance or chugs along with the present damages.

Is the BJP turning senile?

India’s right-wing Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP), the main opposition party at the Centre and in power in 11 states, is crumbling. After facing a humiliating defeat in its bid to corner the central United Progressive Alliance government over the nuclear deal last week in the Parliament and having lost considerable ground in the currency-waving scandal, the party is seemingly loosing its moral and psychological balance. Just when the nation is shocked over the terror caused by blasts in India’s two big cities – Bangalore and Ahmedabad – one of BJP’s top spokespersons Sushma Swaraj on Monday alleged, exhibiting a new low of moral bankruptcy in the party, that the blasts were engineered to divert attention from the Note-For-Vote scandal. This was a direct reference to the Congress party which leads an umbrella of coalition at the Centre.

While the Congress has surely reacted with rage, for common people, this marks a new low in Indian politics, coming as it is after another gloomy episode of currency waving scandal in the Parliament, in which also, BJP had a key role to play.

The comments by Swaraj is in a series of such baseless and mindless utterances by senior BJP leaders in the recent past.

First, L K Advani said on July 22 that the three BJP MPs who had waved wads of currency in the Parliament had his approval – a veteran leader like him could not foresee the kind of damage it could inflict on India’s pristine institution. Then in the aftermath of party protesters turning violent and attacking houses of MPs who had defected in the Trust Vote over Nuclear Agreement, another spokesperson Rajiv Pratap Rudy said recklessly that the attacked MPs should go and seek shelter and support from 10 Janpath (Where Congress Chief Sonia Gandhi resides) and Prime Minister. This was a bizarre and one of the most irresponsible statements one could think of from a mature party like BJP.

The writing on the wall is clear. The BJP has lost the plot and in its bid to outsmart its key opponent is making ridiculous accusations and moves. Strangely, the party which shouts in coarse voice over corruption is itself deep-neck into it all: in Operation Chakravyuh, a sting carried out by a TV channel to expose MPs who took money for raising questions in the Parliament, most MPs were from BJP. The first sting op in the Country by one Tehelka.com exposed the then BJP president taking cash as bribe. A leading columnist, quoting Media Watch group, wrote in a Hindi newspaper Punjab Kesari on Monday (July 28, 08) that every 8th MP in BJP’s pack of 130 in the Parliament is tainted. Also the group found that BJP has the maximum number of tainted MPs: 22.

Incidentally, the maximum number of MPs who defected on this Trust Vote, too were from BJP highlighting the moral bankruptcy of the party. Now if amid all this the party claims to preach and follow the most truthful path, it sounds plain absurd.

A friend commented in desperation, “I didn’t know craving for power mixed with lack of it could make BJP leadership so rudderless and senile.”