Events in Jharkhand are perplexing and painful at the same time. News reports say after its initial hiccups and subsequent subservience to JMM’s Shibu Soren, BJP is mulling withdrawing support Monday.
It could have done well to be more circumspect in the first instance, before committing itself to tie the knot with JMM, in what is seen as an incessant craving for power.
We all know how in the past the state has bled owing to apathy and disdain of the political class. A stable government has eluded the state and so has development. My friends across party lines – in politics and outside of it – have spoken brazenly of how the state offers wonderful opportunity for all those looking for some quick bucks. I was told we could do some quick business, earn a booty and make merry. There are many who have done this, some are still doing, few contemplating.
The otherwise rich state continues to perish under this agonizing derision of people, institutions.
As we celebrate six decades of independence, I continue to wonder if this is for real! Democracy, an ideal that we are all so gung-ho about, continues to get mocked at, bullied, and raped.
Time we did something.
Sunday, May 23, 2010
Saturday, October 31, 2009
A genuine letter: Jaipur OIC Fire
As a former journalist, I am on the group mail of many people including some well-meaning activists. On Friday I received this email from Lt Col (Retd) Anil Heble, sent to all those who matter including President, Prime Minister, UPA Chairperson et al, and I feel it prudent to put it here.
Dear Sir,
As I write this mail a huge fire of indeterminate proportions continues to rage with the usual band of experts making sweeping statements.
Mr. Murli Deora has gallantly says on TV "Nothing can be done until the fire dies down on its own". Rather comforting words for those around.
Apparently, the cause has for the moment a leaking oil pipe, attempts to repair the leak, an untimely earthquake and heaven knows what else. If there is a human error or callousness its first been buried under the hurriedly mentioned reasons. Not withstanding the Rail Ministry's reaction in West Bengal someone very sensible in the Railways has cancelled many trains on the Jaipur - Kota Rail section.
Many statements tendering excuses and the blame game will soon follow in a style that is quite unparallelled.
Traditionally, in India no one is to be blamed ever. Traditionally also, besides the "AAM AADMI" everyone else is infallible.
LESSON TO LEARN & POINT TO MAKE
1. For the support of commercial air operations in Delhi's Indira Gandhi Airport, both domestic and International, two (2) major oil depots are located at Village Shahabad Mohamadpur and Village Bijwasan.
2. Reportedly, the two major ATF oil depot's at Village Shahabad Mohamadpur and Village Bijwasan hold Aviation Turbine Fuel (ATF) in the region of 600,000 litres each.
3. Photography in close proximity of these depot's is "Strictly Forbidden", yet these two depot's are loud and clear on Google Earth and all other maps freely available accross counters in appropriate shops. They are openely visible from all roads passing by.
4. Situated in geometric centre between these two depot's and not more than 500 metres away from either of the two ATF depots, DELHI DEVELOPMENT AUTHORITY'S MASTER PLAN 2021 has reportedly located the Metro Rail Terminus, three metro rail stations, at least two Indian Railway stations besides the broad gauge lines themselves, land space reserved for a Railway Terminus, an ISBT, a 5-Star Hotel, an international convention centre and rather thoughtlessly a host of other infrastructure projects.
5. In the event of an unfortunate event at any one of these two oil depots, sympathatic involvement of the other is inevitable due to its close proximity.
6. In Delhi and with IGI Airport very very close the National Capital of Delhi will is apt to grind to a complete halt, if not its Southern part. Almost all the neighbourhood stands to be exterminated because of this amazing planning to locate ATF Depots not only so close to each other but also in one of the most densely populated area.
7. Besides, in extremely close proximity around these two depots include the rich and high profile Pushpanjali Enclave, parts of high profile sub-city of Dwarka Sectors 7, 8, 9, 10, 21, 22, 23, many Villages such as Bijwasan, Bagdola, Shahabad Mohamadpur, Palam and other sattelite colonies.
8. The ongoing Sitapur fire has made life impossible within a radius of 5 kilometres all alround with half of tonnage of oil.
9. As a conservative guess, population in the Bijwasan and Shahabad Mohamadpur area exceeds 5 Lakhs and in terms of infrastructure valued more than a few thousand crores.
10. As a gentle reminder its appropriate to mention of Delhi being prone to earthquakes and placed in a high zone for that reason.
11. The present levels of security, most unprofessional chappal-clad security staff and questionable adequacy, state of existing fire-fighting equipment and generally lax state of minds are perfect ingredients to a lethal brew.
12. For a start will someone in authority please visit the two sites and assess preventive measures immediately, please.
Lt Col (Retd) Anil Heble
Mobile: 9899629598
Saturday, March 28, 2009
Congress, BJP upping the ante?
Reading and scruitinising media analysis of fragmentation of national political coalitions in recent weeks, I somehow think they want us to believe that both the Congress and BJP are like a decked-up bridegroom who has been deserted just ahead of the marriage ceremony. In fact, there is logic in such metaphors as well; Only that I would want to look at it differently.
To me, regional parties are engaged in a fierce mind game with the mainstream parties. They are also striving hard to enhance their opportunity index and inch ahead in enlarging their regional aspirations. And why not, purists would profess, for democracy is all about accommodating diverse ambitions and egos!
However, the end-game of this mind game is inescapable: we shall yet again see a convergence of interests and the two formations, United Progressive Alliance (UPA) led by the Congress and National Democratic Alliance (NDA) steered by Bhartiya Janta Party, shall come back into reckoning much like in 2004.
However, agonized the bridegroom may appear to the media, the fact is the two mainstream parties too are alarmed of their dwindling pan-India relevance and even though belatedly, are determined to up the ante. This time round, the bridegroom is willing to suffer the bride’s paroxysms rather than concede too much.
The trend began with fragmentation of the NDA bloc. The formation, which ran the national government for five years between 1999 and 2004, started to disintegrate just when the murmurs of 15th Parliamentary elections began in late 2008 and a bunch of regional leaders started nurturing the idea of sewing together a formidable formation. The Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), two strong parties in Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu respectively, quit the bloc. Kannada kingmaker and one of the most mercurial politicians of all times, HD Deve Gowda too aligned with his southern brethren and his JD S party decided to spearhead the Third Front.
The trend continued with Orissa’s Biju Janata Dal (BJD), which along with BJP has been in power for nine years in the eastern state, deciding last month to chart its solo course. They are all seemingly gravitating towards the enigma called Third Front, which by now has become a synonym for a parking bay for regional parties before they chug on to the functional runway.
It is not that the BJP could not have conceded the space demanded by BJD in Orissa. The question is: was BJP willing to concede any bit. I think no, and they did it by design.
The story is somewhat similar in the other major bloc, UPA. There is much brouhaha over the “desertions” by the cow-belt satraps trio Lalu Yadav, Ram Vilas Paswan and Mulayam Singh Yadav. Their respective parties, Rashtriya Janata Dal, Lok Janshakti Party and Samajwadi Party, have decided to go alone in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh which sends 120 members to the Parliament. A tiny PMK, whose leader Anbumani Ramadoss was the Health Minister in the UPA government and enjoys good relations with Prime Minister and other senior Congress leaders too has decided to realign with AIADMK – in 2004 it was in electoral alliance with the other major party in Tamil Nadu, Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam or DMK, which is in power in the state now.
If media analyses are to be believed the Congress has been decimated and has been reduced to nothingness by the might and mischief of these powerful regional satraps of UP and Bihar.
I suspect if this is as simple. The Congress, which has played bonhomie with these leaders and know them too well, is wanting to test waters on its own this time. They know there is a palpable paralysis among the party cadre in states like UP and Bihar and time may be running out for them. One sure way to resuscitate the party and bring life back into local leadership is to contest elections. In fact, there is little talk of it now, but a decade ago based on its bitter alliance experiences the Congress had decided go it alone of what was famously known as the Pachmarhi Declaration of 1998.
Congress, much like the BJP, knows that post elections all these smaller regional parties will eventually need to erect an umbrella. They can surely be the spoke; the bigger canvas will have to come from either of the two.
Thanks to their bloated egos and towering aspirations, all these formations seem too feeble to garner enough coherence and conviction to stand united and run a national government. The Left bloc, which many feel, will become the pivot of such an initiative may have to contend with yet another loss, after their major face off with Congress over the passage of Nuclear Agreement in Parliament last year.
Alas! The bridegroom knows, the marriage will have to happen, and will rather wait. The bride knows too well, it will have to come eventually to the marriage canopy and chant the mantras with the bridegroom.
It is that momentary freeze before the formidable thaw. Onlookers and partygoers keep watching.
To me, regional parties are engaged in a fierce mind game with the mainstream parties. They are also striving hard to enhance their opportunity index and inch ahead in enlarging their regional aspirations. And why not, purists would profess, for democracy is all about accommodating diverse ambitions and egos!
However, the end-game of this mind game is inescapable: we shall yet again see a convergence of interests and the two formations, United Progressive Alliance (UPA) led by the Congress and National Democratic Alliance (NDA) steered by Bhartiya Janta Party, shall come back into reckoning much like in 2004.
However, agonized the bridegroom may appear to the media, the fact is the two mainstream parties too are alarmed of their dwindling pan-India relevance and even though belatedly, are determined to up the ante. This time round, the bridegroom is willing to suffer the bride’s paroxysms rather than concede too much.
The trend began with fragmentation of the NDA bloc. The formation, which ran the national government for five years between 1999 and 2004, started to disintegrate just when the murmurs of 15th Parliamentary elections began in late 2008 and a bunch of regional leaders started nurturing the idea of sewing together a formidable formation. The Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), two strong parties in Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu respectively, quit the bloc. Kannada kingmaker and one of the most mercurial politicians of all times, HD Deve Gowda too aligned with his southern brethren and his JD S party decided to spearhead the Third Front.
The trend continued with Orissa’s Biju Janata Dal (BJD), which along with BJP has been in power for nine years in the eastern state, deciding last month to chart its solo course. They are all seemingly gravitating towards the enigma called Third Front, which by now has become a synonym for a parking bay for regional parties before they chug on to the functional runway.
It is not that the BJP could not have conceded the space demanded by BJD in Orissa. The question is: was BJP willing to concede any bit. I think no, and they did it by design.
The story is somewhat similar in the other major bloc, UPA. There is much brouhaha over the “desertions” by the cow-belt satraps trio Lalu Yadav, Ram Vilas Paswan and Mulayam Singh Yadav. Their respective parties, Rashtriya Janata Dal, Lok Janshakti Party and Samajwadi Party, have decided to go alone in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh which sends 120 members to the Parliament. A tiny PMK, whose leader Anbumani Ramadoss was the Health Minister in the UPA government and enjoys good relations with Prime Minister and other senior Congress leaders too has decided to realign with AIADMK – in 2004 it was in electoral alliance with the other major party in Tamil Nadu, Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam or DMK, which is in power in the state now.
If media analyses are to be believed the Congress has been decimated and has been reduced to nothingness by the might and mischief of these powerful regional satraps of UP and Bihar.
I suspect if this is as simple. The Congress, which has played bonhomie with these leaders and know them too well, is wanting to test waters on its own this time. They know there is a palpable paralysis among the party cadre in states like UP and Bihar and time may be running out for them. One sure way to resuscitate the party and bring life back into local leadership is to contest elections. In fact, there is little talk of it now, but a decade ago based on its bitter alliance experiences the Congress had decided go it alone of what was famously known as the Pachmarhi Declaration of 1998.
Congress, much like the BJP, knows that post elections all these smaller regional parties will eventually need to erect an umbrella. They can surely be the spoke; the bigger canvas will have to come from either of the two.
Thanks to their bloated egos and towering aspirations, all these formations seem too feeble to garner enough coherence and conviction to stand united and run a national government. The Left bloc, which many feel, will become the pivot of such an initiative may have to contend with yet another loss, after their major face off with Congress over the passage of Nuclear Agreement in Parliament last year.
Alas! The bridegroom knows, the marriage will have to happen, and will rather wait. The bride knows too well, it will have to come eventually to the marriage canopy and chant the mantras with the bridegroom.
It is that momentary freeze before the formidable thaw. Onlookers and partygoers keep watching.
Friday, January 2, 2009
National Police needed in wake of terror attacks
This is a relevant piece written by Shri A K Mehta, a thinking citizen from Delhi. He has kindly allowed me to put this on my blog.
Many countries have National Police. In France it is called ‘Gendarmerie Nationale’. I am articulating my viewpoint by breaking the discussion into six parts:
A) Present Scenario: - Terror attack in Mumbai has again started debate on National security, blame game, Political parties trying to score over one another, Visit by USA Secretary Etc etc. Three heads have already rolled to do some face saving. But do the Politicians have the will or the foresight to take long term and deep rooted decisions to have a permanent solution. Besides terrorism today the Nation is facing problems of organised crime, smuggling, menace of counterfeit currency, naxal/maoist threat, ulfa, money laundering, politician-Police-criminal nexus, inter state gangsters, hawala, drug trafficking, kidnapping for ransom, dacoits, murders, rapist and so on. Is it a normal law and order subject? According to me No, I shall call it National crimes or internal aggression. Most of these crimes have either links to other states/countries or in some cases even tacit support from other countries. Person behind these crimes are enemy of the nation and not a particular state. To me situation looks grim, with country, may be, heading towards disintegration. There is need of serious thinking by at least heads of two main Political parties. Instead it seems we will end up by creating another security Agency, the Federal one, to add to the existing confusion.
B) Law & Order: - In our country it is called a state subject. But will the Politicians wake up and try to search definition of Law & Order. To me it means small crime like theft etc., traffic management, policing like PCR’s, VIP movement/security, different verifications like passports, licensing etc. The crimes mentioned in Para A are threat to national security and must be classified as national crimes. They are almost a war on the Nation and need an organisation similar to Army to fight it. Controlling these crimes require links. Intelligence, investigation, arrests, raids etc. all over India and state police are not equipped for this. Gone are the days when war use to be fought on borders. In a country like ours, which was once divided into 550 states and largely inhabited by persons with divisive tendencies with no national character probably due to centuries of foreign rule, it was wrong to make complete Law & Order a state subject. There is urgent need to draw a line.
C) Security Agencies and Their Morale: - We have a jungle of security agencies. Every state has its own Police, its own ATS, crime branch, intelligence wing, commandos etc etc. Then we have CBI, IB, CRPF, NSG, SPG, RAF and more on centre level. All working like water tight compartments and in their own direction. There have been allegations of Politicians using these agencies to their advantage. In state Police recruitments are done at four levels (i) Constable (ii) Sub Inspector (iii) DSP- through state service cadre and (iv) SP- through centre IPS cadre. Except the last the other three cadres hardly get one or two promotions in about 36 years of their total service. As a result every body is after immediate gains/ lucrative postings, which in many case leads can lead to political-police-criminal nexus. They are dependent on politicians for their postings. May be if the Local MLA is annoyed a person can be transferred. In nutshell morale is down and policing is hardly in the mind
Coming to intelligence India has about 16 intelligence agencies dealing with security and 3 dealing with economic intelligence. Besides every state Police has its own intelligence wings. All gathering information, but who is there to interpret it for national security. A normal management saying is that information and statistics unless analyzed and shared is of no use. Similarly for our borders we have Border security Force, Indo Tibetian Border Security Force, Sashastra Seema Bal, The coast guards and so on.
D) Armed Forces: - To fight against external aggression, we have three armed forces under one Minister of defense and the chief commander being the President of India. There is perfect coordination/discipline and the three chief can meet at a very short notice. Our armed forces have never let us down. Recruitment is done at two levels. Firstly at bottom i.e. Sipahi, who has chance for 7 promotions in his service up to Subedar Major. Secondly at officer level i.e. Lieutinent, who has chance for 9 promotions in his service up to the Chief. We must note that period of service in army is comparatively less than in Police. Clear cut chain of command and chances of timely promotions inculcate discipline and keep the morale high. Every body knows what to do and when to do. We need a police force on the lines of armed forces to fight internal aggression. Remember in policing ‘Fear is the key’. Today fear of police from mind of the criminals has gone due to various reasons. A National Police shall bring back the required fear.
E) Possible Solution: - It is simple, provided there is Political will
1. To create a ministry of internal Defense or Security.
2. To create a National Police to fight crimes mentioned in Para A under it on the lines of armed forces with
Chief Commander being the president of India.
3. National Police to be formed by merging CRPF, NSG, CBI, IB, RAF, crime branches of the state police etc.
4. National Police to have Police Stations all over India and to have its own Investigation/intelligence wing,
marine police, commandos etc.
5. Recruitment in National Police to be done at two levels like Armed forces. Postings from sub-inspector
Level to be national and up to this level to be regional.
6. Separate fast track courts for cases under jurisdiction of National Police.
7. All the border security forces to be also merged in one like National Police and to be under Ministry of
Internal Defense.
8. With above we shall have four tier security i.e. Local Police, National Police, Border security Force and
The Armed Forces.
9. Normal law and order mentioned in Para B, being state subject to remain under Local Police.
10. Let the CISF and RAW remain under Home Minister.
F. Benefits to Accrue: - They shall be enormous;-
1. Better law and order, fast solving of cases, fear in the mind of criminals, leading to a safer Nation.
2. Shall save the nation from possible disintegration. Divisive tendencies shall be curtailed.
3. Shall help in building our national character in the long run.
4. Saving to exchequer. May be half the force shall be needed due to avoidance of multiplicity of authorities besides unnecessary Travelling by state police to other states shall be controlled.
mehta_omvilla@yahoo.co.in (A.K. Mehta)
Note: - A copy of this write up is being forwarded to Hon’bles Sh. Manmohan Singh Prime Minister of India, Sh.L.K.Advani Leader of opposition, Smt. Sonia Gandhi Congress (I) President and Sh. Rajnath Singh BJP President
Sunday, November 16, 2008
Will BSP spring a surprise at state polls
I am perplexed as a frog at the sudden lull in political bickering these days. Barring few byte barbs at each other over Hindu vs Muslim terrorism, mainstream political parties seem to have arrived at a consensus on a momentary shift in focus. Not surprisingly all the raging issues from inflation to nuke deal, north versus west, job losses to economic recession and bad economics which so prominently featured in political discourses have strikingly disappeared from national political consciousness.
The focus has shifted to six state elections and rightly so.
Polls for state assemblies are due in Chhatisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Delhi, Mizoram and J & K over next few weeks and top political brass is busy devising means of grabbing power there.
By December 8 we shall know the outcome in these state elections which are being dubbed as the semi finals before the final of the General Elections to be held by April 2009. Mainstream Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) which has been on a winning spree in states since the incumbent United Progressive Alliance (UPA) led by the Indian National Congress came to power in 2004 is eyeing a repeat performance. Subsequently, it would aim to grab power at the centre with its coalition partners under the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) umbrella which earlier ruled from 1999 to 2004.
The Congress, despite having introduced some brilliant social and populist schemes such as National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (NREGA) and Civilian Nuclear Agreement with USA, is visibly on the back foot and would be hoping the rule of anti-incumbency swings results in its favour in Rajasthan, Chhatisgarh and Madhya Pradesh. The timing of the elections could not have been worse for the party. Price rise, internal security and economic slowdown have created an atmosphere of gloom among large swathe of people and the mood is bound to get transmitted onto the ballot papers, or yes, the Electronic Voting Machines. I know for myself, I am perturbed at the state of our security in recent past.
The elections are also crucial for Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), which is in power in the most populous state of Uttar Pradesh (UP), and is led by a fiery leader and UP chief minister Mayawati. The party which is credited with devising a unique social engineering formula and has made rapid strides in recent past is set to spoil the party for both Congress and BJP in at least four states except Mizoram and J&K. The party sits pretty on its strong vote bank of Dalits and other marginalized groups, has been able to enlarge its rainbow by drawing support from many upper and lower caste groupings of the Indian society. Caste affiliations incidentally play the most crucial role in Indian elections most of the places. BSP exhibited its power in Delhi municipal elections last year by grabbing an impressive 10% vote share and in the process jeopardizing Congress’s prospects. BJP won the municipal elections with impressive margins.
While the elections would as usual spring in some surprises and certainly set the tone for the General Elections, I would be keenly watching BSP’s game plan and gains. While it will not be in a position to come to power anywhere, it has the potential to spring surpsies. Will it?
The focus has shifted to six state elections and rightly so.
Polls for state assemblies are due in Chhatisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Delhi, Mizoram and J & K over next few weeks and top political brass is busy devising means of grabbing power there.
By December 8 we shall know the outcome in these state elections which are being dubbed as the semi finals before the final of the General Elections to be held by April 2009. Mainstream Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) which has been on a winning spree in states since the incumbent United Progressive Alliance (UPA) led by the Indian National Congress came to power in 2004 is eyeing a repeat performance. Subsequently, it would aim to grab power at the centre with its coalition partners under the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) umbrella which earlier ruled from 1999 to 2004.
The Congress, despite having introduced some brilliant social and populist schemes such as National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (NREGA) and Civilian Nuclear Agreement with USA, is visibly on the back foot and would be hoping the rule of anti-incumbency swings results in its favour in Rajasthan, Chhatisgarh and Madhya Pradesh. The timing of the elections could not have been worse for the party. Price rise, internal security and economic slowdown have created an atmosphere of gloom among large swathe of people and the mood is bound to get transmitted onto the ballot papers, or yes, the Electronic Voting Machines. I know for myself, I am perturbed at the state of our security in recent past.
The elections are also crucial for Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), which is in power in the most populous state of Uttar Pradesh (UP), and is led by a fiery leader and UP chief minister Mayawati. The party which is credited with devising a unique social engineering formula and has made rapid strides in recent past is set to spoil the party for both Congress and BJP in at least four states except Mizoram and J&K. The party sits pretty on its strong vote bank of Dalits and other marginalized groups, has been able to enlarge its rainbow by drawing support from many upper and lower caste groupings of the Indian society. Caste affiliations incidentally play the most crucial role in Indian elections most of the places. BSP exhibited its power in Delhi municipal elections last year by grabbing an impressive 10% vote share and in the process jeopardizing Congress’s prospects. BJP won the municipal elections with impressive margins.
While the elections would as usual spring in some surprises and certainly set the tone for the General Elections, I would be keenly watching BSP’s game plan and gains. While it will not be in a position to come to power anywhere, it has the potential to spring surpsies. Will it?
Unity in diversity?
My friend Monish Mazumdar has been too kind to send this piece to be published here.
India is a land of "Unity in Diversity" was some of the essays we used to write during our school days. The theme use to revolve around geographic, cultural, linguistic, religious issues drawing similarities and contrast. Looking at the recent incidents of violence in Orissa and Maharashtra I question myself as to where we all are heading. Remember the erstwhile USSR and its super power status during pre and post cold war era. Now Russia is limited by geographic boundaries though still roars like a sleeping lion whenever there is crisis around. Smaller states were created through political referendums and ethnic clashes and we see the major ones merging into the European Union. Post cold war, the ethnic clashes among states of erstwhile USSR were mainly on linguistic and cultural issues. This has never happened and seems will never happen with US of A because of one culture and one religion.
With general election round the corner in India, political parties have already started seat sharing discussions, pacts and negotiations. Political leaders are also busy drawing strategies for setting the agenda for the election campaign with attacks and counter attack strategies. In the current scenario the people of the country needs to be sensible enough to read between the lines of what the media represents from the political remarks made. Otherwise we are likely to see similar situation that had taken place with USSR on linguistic and cultural lines, even though pundits predict that China & India among the emerging economies would take the lead in globalization efforts and financial stability in all the major stock markets. While I say similar situation, I mean religious conflicts that have taken place in Orissa which has brought shame to the nation. The linguistic and regional conflicts and negative attitude of people of Maharashtra towards north Indians also falls in the same category.
It's better to wait and watch rather than jump into any conclusion at this moment, but at the same time keep calm and think of responsible and sensible citizenship.
India is a land of "Unity in Diversity" was some of the essays we used to write during our school days. The theme use to revolve around geographic, cultural, linguistic, religious issues drawing similarities and contrast. Looking at the recent incidents of violence in Orissa and Maharashtra I question myself as to where we all are heading. Remember the erstwhile USSR and its super power status during pre and post cold war era. Now Russia is limited by geographic boundaries though still roars like a sleeping lion whenever there is crisis around. Smaller states were created through political referendums and ethnic clashes and we see the major ones merging into the European Union. Post cold war, the ethnic clashes among states of erstwhile USSR were mainly on linguistic and cultural issues. This has never happened and seems will never happen with US of A because of one culture and one religion.
With general election round the corner in India, political parties have already started seat sharing discussions, pacts and negotiations. Political leaders are also busy drawing strategies for setting the agenda for the election campaign with attacks and counter attack strategies. In the current scenario the people of the country needs to be sensible enough to read between the lines of what the media represents from the political remarks made. Otherwise we are likely to see similar situation that had taken place with USSR on linguistic and cultural lines, even though pundits predict that China & India among the emerging economies would take the lead in globalization efforts and financial stability in all the major stock markets. While I say similar situation, I mean religious conflicts that have taken place in Orissa which has brought shame to the nation. The linguistic and regional conflicts and negative attitude of people of Maharashtra towards north Indians also falls in the same category.
It's better to wait and watch rather than jump into any conclusion at this moment, but at the same time keep calm and think of responsible and sensible citizenship.
Monday, October 20, 2008
Congress cup of woes overflows
India's Election's Commission has announced elections to six states. Many believe this will be the great semi finals before the final, General Elections in 2009. True, elections in northern states of Delhi, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh (MP) and Chhattisgarh will surely set the tone for General Elections. Outcomes in Mizoram and J&K will not be that significant. Empirical evidence suggests that anti-incumbency plays a major role in Indian elections barring few exceptions of Communist-ruled states. Going by that formula, Congress which won 48/70, 51/200, 39/172 and 34/91 seats in Delhi, Rajasthan, MP and Chhattisgarh respectively stand a fair chance in the latter three states barring Delhi, where it has been in government for past two terms now. The BJP had secured 19, 123, 172 and 52 seats respectively in these states, literally wiping out Congress in MP and Rajasthan while retaining a comfortable majority in Chhattisgarh.
Going by sentiments of people and assessment of political observers the situation in these states is as following: Congress seems poised to make a comeback in Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and MP, more comfortably in the first two states than the third.
In Delhi it is almost certain to lose and an indication to this came in the municipal elections last year when BJP routed Congress, exhibiting people’s mood for a change. The magic of Sheila Dikshit, who tickled people’s imagination for 10 years in a row, now seems to be waning. In MP, however, BJP’s Shivraj Singh Chauhan is working overnight to ensure a return. Congress which is witness to a high-powered tussle for top post – Digvijay Singh, Suresh Pachauri, Jyotiraditya Scindia are all contenders – is seemingly losing the edge and may end up an also-ran in end. In both Delhi and MP, BSP will play a spoilsport and the damage would be more telling on the Congress party. Uma Bharti may inflict some harm to BJP in MP as well. In the two relatively less significant states, regional players are likely to call the shots: NC in J&K and MNF in Mizoram are preferred choice.
At the end of it, the two main parties Congress and BJP will seem equally poised for the big game. However, at a psychological level the BJP will be far more ebullient than Congress given the present state of affairs.
Congress and UPA have far more worries than it could have imagined. Barely had it emerged out of the internal security crisis when the market meltdown brought the government under edgy eyes of the Great Indian Middle Class. Political parties know well that the vocal middle class holds a lot of relevance, if not the numerical strength, certainly the capacity to influence public opinions. Today the mood in Indian cities range from disillusionment to frustration. The euphoria of the new economy boom and surging Sensex have given way to skepticism and jittery eyes at the future. The Jet saga has acted as a curtain raiser for the state of affairs to unfold. The Finance Minister has failed to impress and enthuse confidence despite his articulate “stay invested” and “all is well with fundamentals of our economy” assertions.
The psychology of fear created by a spate of bomb blasts in last few months has left many Indians panicky especially in the urban centres. The rural poor are yet to realize the benefits of schemes like NREGA and Farmers’ Debt Waiver. The overall mood is solemn. The zeal of the Nuclear Deal is long over and people seem to be questioning which is the next crisis they are likely to face.
The alliance partners of UPA, notably the new ones, have made matters worse. In their bid to woo the Muslim voters in UP, SP seems to have gone overboard and has taken the encounter debate to new level of absurdities. Congress too has been mired by its internal contradictions and one has rarely seen a concrete statement from a senior leader. Vote bank politics has led to a crisis of confidence of political parties and Congress and its partners seem worst affected by it at the moment. For large part of Indian middle class this dubious stance of the Congress of trying to woo the Muslims is becoming painful. Worse for them, the Muslims are neither too gung-ho about the party and many local leaders exhibited this sentiment in Jamia Nagar recently when they openly vowed to wipe out Congress from power. Congress is caught between devil and the deep sea.
BJP is surely trying to capitalize on the inherent contradictions of the Congress. The recent debate over ban of Bajrang Dal, if seen in conjunction with brouhaha over terrorism, is sure to give a push to BJP’s Hindutva agenda. Apparently, BJP is preparing deadly ammunition of failures of government vis a vis Aam Aadmi be it on internal, economic or social security, spiraling prices and host of local issues to be used during the elections. Many say partly due to their misdeeds and partly some unforeseen calamities – who would have predicted the fall of the market at this point of time – Congress has been pushed to a corner now.
Not all may be lost as yet for the party however. It is still few months away from the General Elections and if the party is aware it can do a lot of damage control. But Congress is known to commit serious political mistakes and it would need close to a miracle for the party to get out of the present mess. One has to remember, Congress is not only struggling to keep its flock together – DMK is the latest irritant for the party even as the cries of SP over Batla encounter is far from over – but also it pitted against some formidable and shrewd opponents such as Mayawati. The party appeared crawling after Mayawati played a masterstroke of challenging the mighty Sonia Gandhi. Whatever skeptics might say, she had capitalized on this posturing and her voters yet again realized this is one lady who does not wink in confronting the mightiest.
Congress, which strands smothered in critical Uttar Pradesh, instead of making the most out of this outburst of Mayawati stood satisfied with some mere glib-talks from New Delhi. One would have expected any shrewd politician to make the most out of it by launching protests demonstrations against Mayawati in UP. Instead of making a hasty retreat Sonia Gandhi should have stayed on and infused some vigour into the lifeless cadres there. But they made a monumental blunder.
In weeks ahead the party will face many trickier situations. We’ll have to wait and watch whether the age-old party further shrinks in significance or chugs along with the present damages.
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