Indian Politics

Jharkhand: Exemplifying derision of democracy

2010-05-23T11:50:00.000-07:00

Events in Jharkhand are perplexing and painful at the same time. News reports say after its initial hiccups and subsequent subservience to JMM’s Shibu Soren, BJP is mulling withdrawing support Monday.

It could have done well to be more circumspect in the first instance, before committing itself to tie the knot with JMM, in what is seen as an incessant craving for power.

We all know how in the past the state has bled owing to apathy and disdain of the political class. A stable government has eluded the state and so has development. My friends across party lines – in politics and outside of it – have spoken brazenly of how the state offers wonderful opportunity for all those looking for some quick bucks. I was told we could do some quick business, earn a booty and make merry. There are many who have done this, some are still doing, few contemplating.

The otherwise rich state continues to perish under this agonizing derision of people, institutions.

As we celebrate six decades of independence, I continue to wonder if this is for real! Democracy, an ideal that we are all so gung-ho about, continues to get mocked at, bullied, and raped.

Time we did something.

A genuine letter: Jaipur OIC Fire

2009-10-31T04:28:00.000-07:00

As a former journalist, I am on the group mail of many people including some well-meaning activists. On Friday I received this email from Lt Col (Retd) Anil Heble, sent to all those who matter including President, Prime Minister, UPA Chairperson et al, and I feel it prudent to put it here.

Dear Sir,

As I write this mail a huge fire of indeterminate proportions continues to rage with the usual band of experts making sweeping statements.

Mr. Murli Deora has gallantly says on TV "Nothing can be done until the fire dies down on its own". Rather comforting words for those around.

Apparently, the cause has for the moment a leaking oil pipe, attempts to repair the leak, an untimely earthquake and heaven knows what else. If there is a human error or callousness its first been buried under the hurriedly mentioned reasons. Not withstanding the Rail Ministry's reaction in West Bengal someone very sensible in the Railways has cancelled many trains on the Jaipur - Kota Rail section.

Many statements tendering excuses and the blame game will soon follow in a style that is quite unparallelled.

Traditionally, in India no one is to be blamed ever. Traditionally also, besides the "AAM AADMI" everyone else is infallible.

LESSON TO LEARN & POINT TO MAKE

1. For the support of commercial air operations in Delhi's Indira Gandhi Airport, both domestic and International, two (2) major oil depots are located at Village Shahabad Mohamadpur and Village Bijwasan.

2. Reportedly, the two major ATF oil depot's at Village Shahabad Mohamadpur and Village Bijwasan hold Aviation Turbine Fuel (ATF) in the region of 600,000 litres each.

3. Photography in close proximity of these depot's is "Strictly Forbidden", yet these two depot's are loud and clear on Google Earth and all other maps freely available accross counters in appropriate shops. They are openely visible from all roads passing by.

4. Situated in geometric centre between these two depot's and not more than 500 metres away from either of the two ATF depots, DELHI DEVELOPMENT AUTHORITY'S MASTER PLAN 2021 has reportedly located the Metro Rail Terminus, three metro rail stations, at least two Indian Railway stations besides the broad gauge lines themselves, land space reserved for a Railway Terminus, an ISBT, a 5-Star Hotel, an international convention centre and rather thoughtlessly a host of other infrastructure projects.

5. In the event of an unfortunate event at any one of these two oil depots, sympathatic involvement of the other is inevitable due to its close proximity.

6. In Delhi and with IGI Airport very very close the National Capital of Delhi will is apt to grind to a complete halt, if not its Southern part. Almost all the neighbourhood stands to be exterminated because of this amazing planning to locate ATF Depots not only so close to each other but also in one of the most densely populated area.

7. Besides, in extremely close proximity around these two depots include the rich and high profile Pushpanjali Enclave, parts of high profile sub-city of Dwarka Sectors 7, 8, 9, 10, 21, 22, 23, many Villages such as Bijwasan, Bagdola, Shahabad Mohamadpur, Palam and other sattelite colonies.

8. The ongoing Sitapur fire has made life impossible within a radius of 5 kilometres all alround with half of tonnage of oil.

9. As a conservative guess, population in the Bijwasan and Shahabad Mohamadpur area exceeds 5 Lakhs and in terms of infrastructure valued more than a few thousand crores.

10. As a gentle reminder its appropriate to mention of Delhi being prone to earthquakes and placed in a high zone for that reason.

11. The present levels of security, most unprofessional chappal-clad security staff and questionable adequacy, state of existing fire-fighting equipment and generally lax state of minds are perfect ingredients to a lethal brew.

12. For a start will someone in authority please visit the two sites and assess preventive measures immediately, please.

Lt Col (Retd) Anil Heble

Mobile: 9899629598

Congress, BJP upping the ante?

2009-03-28T13:02:00.001-07:00

Reading and scruitinising media analysis of fragmentation of national political coalitions in recent weeks, I somehow think they want us to believe that both the Congress and BJP are like a decked-up bridegroom who has been deserted just ahead of the marriage ceremony. In fact, there is logic in such metaphors as well; Only that I would want to look at it differently.

To me, regional parties are engaged in a fierce mind game with the mainstream parties. They are also striving hard to enhance their opportunity index and inch ahead in enlarging their regional aspirations. And why not, purists would profess, for democracy is all about accommodating diverse ambitions and egos!

However, the end-game of this mind game is inescapable: we shall yet again see a convergence of interests and the two formations, United Progressive Alliance (UPA) led by the Congress and National Democratic Alliance (NDA) steered by Bhartiya Janta Party, shall come back into reckoning much like in 2004.

However, agonized the bridegroom may appear to the media, the fact is the two mainstream parties too are alarmed of their dwindling pan-India relevance and even though belatedly, are determined to up the ante. This time round, the bridegroom is willing to suffer the bride’s paroxysms rather than concede too much.

The trend began with fragmentation of the NDA bloc. The formation, which ran the national government for five years between 1999 and 2004, started to disintegrate just when the murmurs of 15th Parliamentary elections began in late 2008 and a bunch of regional leaders started nurturing the idea of sewing together a formidable formation. The Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), two strong parties in Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu respectively, quit the bloc. Kannada kingmaker and one of the most mercurial politicians of all times, HD Deve Gowda too aligned with his southern brethren and his JD S party decided to spearhead the Third Front.

The trend continued with Orissa’s Biju Janata Dal (BJD), which along with BJP has been in power for nine years in the eastern state, deciding last month to chart its solo course. They are all seemingly gravitating towards the enigma called Third Front, which by now has become a synonym for a parking bay for regional parties before they chug on to the functional runway.

It is not that the BJP could not have conceded the space demanded by BJD in Orissa. The question is: was BJP willing to concede any bit. I think no, and they did it by design.

The story is somewhat similar in the other major bloc, UPA. There is much brouhaha over the “desertions” by the cow-belt satraps trio Lalu Yadav, Ram Vilas Paswan and Mulayam Singh Yadav. Their respective parties, Rashtriya Janata Dal, Lok Janshakti Party and Samajwadi Party, have decided to go alone in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh which sends 120 members to the Parliament. A tiny PMK, whose leader Anbumani Ramadoss was the Health Minister in the UPA government and enjoys good relations with Prime Minister and other senior Congress leaders too has decided to realign with AIADMK – in 2004 it was in electoral alliance with the other major party in Tamil Nadu, Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam or DMK, which is in power in the state now.

If media analyses are to be believed the Congress has been decimated and has been reduced to nothingness by the might and mischief of these powerful regional satraps of UP and Bihar.

I suspect if this is as simple. The Congress, which has played bonhomie with these leaders and know them too well, is wanting to test waters on its own this time. They know there is a palpable paralysis among the party cadre in states like UP and Bihar and time may be running out for them. One sure way to resuscitate the party and bring life back into local leadership is to contest elections. In fact, there is little talk of it now, but a decade ago based on its bitter alliance experiences the Congress had decided go it alone of what was famously known as the Pachmarhi Declaration of 1998.

Congress, much like the BJP, knows that post elections all these smaller regional parties will eventually need to erect an umbrella. They can surely be the spoke; the bigger canvas will have to come from either of the two.

Thanks to their bloated egos and towering aspirations, all these formations seem too feeble to garner enough coherence and conviction to stand united and run a national government. The Left bloc, which many feel, will become the pivot of such an initiative may have to contend with yet another loss, after their major face off with Congress over the passage of Nuclear Agreement in Parliament last year.

Alas! The bridegroom knows, the marriage will have to happen, and will rather wait. The bride knows too well, it will have to come eventually to the marriage canopy and chant the mantras with the bridegroom.

It is that momentary freeze before the formidable thaw. Onlookers and partygoers keep watching.

National Police needed in wake of terror attacks

2009-01-02T03:51:00.000-08:00

This is a relevant piece written by Shri A K Mehta, a thinking citizen from Delhi. He has kindly allowed me to put this on my blog.

Many countries have National Police. In France it is called ‘Gendarmerie Nationale’. I am articulating my viewpoint by breaking the discussion into six parts:

A) Present Scenario: - Terror attack in Mumbai has again started debate on National security, blame game, Political parties trying to score over one another, Visit by USA Secretary Etc etc. Three heads have already rolled to do some face saving. But do the Politicians have the will or the foresight to take long term and deep rooted decisions to have a permanent solution. Besides terrorism today the Nation is facing problems of organised crime, smuggling, menace of counterfeit currency, naxal/maoist threat, ulfa, money laundering, politician-Police-criminal nexus, inter state gangsters, hawala, drug trafficking, kidnapping for ransom, dacoits, murders, rapist and so on. Is it a normal law and order subject? According to me No, I shall call it National crimes or internal aggression. Most of these crimes have either links to other states/countries or in some cases even tacit support from other countries. Person behind these crimes are enemy of the nation and not a particular state. To me situation looks grim, with country, may be, heading towards disintegration. There is need of serious thinking by at least heads of two main Political parties. Instead it seems we will end up by creating another security Agency, the Federal one, to add to the existing confusion.

B) Law & Order: - In our country it is called a state subject. But will the Politicians wake up and try to search definition of Law & Order. To me it means small crime like theft etc., traffic management, policing like PCR’s, VIP movement/security, different verifications like passports, licensing etc. The crimes mentioned in Para A are threat to national security and must be classified as national crimes. They are almost a war on the Nation and need an organisation similar to Army to fight it. Controlling these crimes require links. Intelligence, investigation, arrests, raids etc. all over India and state police are not equipped for this. Gone are the days when war use to be fought on borders. In a country like ours, which was once divided into 550 states and largely inhabited by persons with divisive tendencies with no national character probably due to centuries of foreign rule, it was wrong to make complete Law & Order a state subject. There is urgent need to draw a line.

C) Security Agencies and Their Morale: - We have a jungle of security agencies. Every state has its own Police, its own ATS, crime branch, intelligence wing, commandos etc etc. Then we have CBI, IB, CRPF, NSG, SPG, RAF and more on centre level. All working like water tight compartments and in their own direction. There have been allegations of Politicians using these agencies to their advantage. In state Police recruitments are done at four levels (i) Constable (ii) Sub Inspector (iii) DSP- through state service cadre and (iv) SP- through centre IPS cadre. Except the last the other three cadres hardly get one or two promotions in about 36 years of their total service. As a result every body is after immediate gains/ lucrative postings, which in many case leads can lead to political-police-criminal nexus. They are dependent on politicians for their postings. May be if the Local MLA is annoyed a person can be transferred. In nutshell morale is down and policing is hardly in the mind

Coming to intelligence India has about 16 intelligence agencies dealing with security and 3 dealing with economic intelligence. Besides every state Police has its own intelligence wings. All gathering information, but who is there to interpret it for national security. A normal management saying is that information and statistics unless analyzed and shared is of no use. Similarly for our borders we have Border security Force, Indo Tibetian Border Security Force, Sashastra Seema Bal, The coast guards and so on.

D) Armed Forces: - To fight against external aggression, we have three armed forces under one Minister of defense and the chief commander being the President of India. There is perfect coordination/discipline and the three chief can meet at a very short notice. Our armed forces have never let us down. Recruitment is done at two levels. Firstly at bottom i.e. Sipahi, who has chance for 7 promotions in his service up to Subedar Major. Secondly at officer level i.e. Lieutinent, who has chance for 9 promotions in his service up to the Chief. We must note that period of service in army is comparatively less than in Police. Clear cut chain of command and chances of timely promotions inculcate discipline and keep the morale high. Every body knows what to do and when to do. We need a police force on the lines of armed forces to fight internal aggression. Remember in policing ‘Fear is the key’. Today fear of police from mind of the criminals has gone due to various reasons. A National Police shall bring back the required fear.

E) Possible Solution: - It is simple, provided there is Political will
1. To create a ministry of internal Defense or Security.
2. To create a National Police to fight crimes mentioned in Para A under it on the lines of armed forces with
Chief Commander being the president of India.
3. National Police to be formed by merging CRPF, NSG, CBI, IB, RAF, crime branches of the state police etc.
4. National Police to have Police Stations all over India and to have its own Investigation/intelligence wing,
marine police, commandos etc.
5. Recruitment in National Police to be done at two levels like Armed forces. Postings from sub-inspector
Level to be national and up to this level to be regional.
6. Separate fast track courts for cases under jurisdiction of National Police.
7. All the border security forces to be also merged in one like National Police and to be under Ministry of
Internal Defense.
8. With above we shall have four tier security i.e. Local Police, National Police, Border security Force and
The Armed Forces.
9. Normal law and order mentioned in Para B, being state subject to remain under Local Police.
10. Let the CISF and RAW remain under Home Minister.

F. Benefits to Accrue: - They shall be enormous;-
1. Better law and order, fast solving of cases, fear in the mind of criminals, leading to a safer Nation.
2. Shall save the nation from possible disintegration. Divisive tendencies shall be curtailed.
3. Shall help in building our national character in the long run.
4. Saving to exchequer. May be half the force shall be needed due to avoidance of multiplicity of authorities besides unnecessary Travelling by state police to other states shall be controlled.

mehta_omvilla@yahoo.co.in (A.K. Mehta)

Note: - A copy of this write up is being forwarded to Hon’bles Sh. Manmohan Singh Prime Minister of India, Sh.L.K.Advani Leader of opposition, Smt. Sonia Gandhi Congress (I) President and Sh. Rajnath Singh BJP President

Will BSP spring a surprise at state polls

2008-11-16T10:43:00.001-08:00

I am perplexed as a frog at the sudden lull in political bickering these days. Barring few byte barbs at each other over Hindu vs Muslim terrorism, mainstream political parties seem to have arrived at a consensus on a momentary shift in focus. Not surprisingly all the raging issues from inflation to nuke deal, north versus west, job losses to economic recession and bad economics which so prominently featured in political discourses have strikingly disappeared from national political consciousness.

The focus has shifted to six state elections and rightly so.

Polls for state assemblies are due in Chhatisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Delhi, Mizoram and J & K over next few weeks and top political brass is busy devising means of grabbing power there.

By December 8 we shall know the outcome in these state elections which are being dubbed as the semi finals before the final of the General Elections to be held by April 2009. Mainstream Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) which has been on a winning spree in states since the incumbent United Progressive Alliance (UPA) led by the Indian National Congress came to power in 2004 is eyeing a repeat performance. Subsequently, it would aim to grab power at the centre with its coalition partners under the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) umbrella which earlier ruled from 1999 to 2004.

The Congress, despite having introduced some brilliant social and populist schemes such as National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (NREGA) and Civilian Nuclear Agreement with USA, is visibly on the back foot and would be hoping the rule of anti-incumbency swings results in its favour in Rajasthan, Chhatisgarh and Madhya Pradesh. The timing of the elections could not have been worse for the party. Price rise, internal security and economic slowdown have created an atmosphere of gloom among large swathe of people and the mood is bound to get transmitted onto the ballot papers, or yes, the Electronic Voting Machines. I know for myself, I am perturbed at the state of our security in recent past.

The elections are also crucial for Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), which is in power in the most populous state of Uttar Pradesh (UP), and is led by a fiery leader and UP chief minister Mayawati. The party which is credited with devising a unique social engineering formula and has made rapid strides in recent past is set to spoil the party for both Congress and BJP in at least four states except Mizoram and J&K. The party sits pretty on its strong vote bank of Dalits and other marginalized groups, has been able to enlarge its rainbow by drawing support from many upper and lower caste groupings of the Indian society. Caste affiliations incidentally play the most crucial role in Indian elections most of the places. BSP exhibited its power in Delhi municipal elections last year by grabbing an impressive 10% vote share and in the process jeopardizing Congress’s prospects. BJP won the municipal elections with impressive margins.

While the elections would as usual spring in some surprises and certainly set the tone for the General Elections, I would be keenly watching BSP’s game plan and gains. While it will not be in a position to come to power anywhere, it has the potential to spring surpsies. Will it?

Unity in diversity?

2008-11-16T10:41:00.001-08:00

My friend Monish Mazumdar has been too kind to send this piece to be published here.

India is a land of "Unity in Diversity" was some of the essays we used to write during our school days. The theme use to revolve around geographic, cultural, linguistic, religious issues drawing similarities and contrast. Looking at the recent incidents of violence in Orissa and Maharashtra I question myself as to where we all are heading. Remember the erstwhile USSR and its super power status during pre and post cold war era. Now Russia is limited by geographic boundaries though still roars like a sleeping lion whenever there is crisis around. Smaller states were created through political referendums and ethnic clashes and we see the major ones merging into the European Union. Post cold war, the ethnic clashes among states of erstwhile USSR were mainly on linguistic and cultural issues. This has never happened and seems will never happen with US of A because of one culture and one religion.

With general election round the corner in India, political parties have already started seat sharing discussions, pacts and negotiations. Political leaders are also busy drawing strategies for setting the agenda for the election campaign with attacks and counter attack strategies. In the current scenario the people of the country needs to be sensible enough to read between the lines of what the media represents from the political remarks made. Otherwise we are likely to see similar situation that had taken place with USSR on linguistic and cultural lines, even though pundits predict that China & India among the emerging economies would take the lead in globalization efforts and financial stability in all the major stock markets. While I say similar situation, I mean religious conflicts that have taken place in Orissa which has brought shame to the nation. The linguistic and regional conflicts and negative attitude of people of Maharashtra towards north Indians also falls in the same category.

It's better to wait and watch rather than jump into any conclusion at this moment, but at the same time keep calm and think of responsible and sensible citizenship.

Congress cup of woes overflows

2008-10-20T05:15:00.000-07:00

India's Election's Commission has announced elections to six states. Many believe this will be the great semi finals before the final, General Elections in 2009. True, elections in northern states of Delhi, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh (MP) and Chhattisgarh will surely set the tone for General Elections. Outcomes in Mizoram and J&K will not be that significant. Empirical evidence suggests that anti-incumbency plays a major role in Indian elections barring few exceptions of Communist-ruled states. Going by that formula, Congress which won 48/70, 51/200, 39/172 and 34/91 seats in Delhi, Rajasthan, MP and Chhattisgarh respectively stand a fair chance in the latter three states barring Delhi, where it has been in government for past two terms now. The BJP had secured 19, 123, 172 and 52 seats respectively in these states, literally wiping out Congress in MP and Rajasthan while retaining a comfortable majority in Chhattisgarh.

Going by sentiments of people and assessment of political observers the situation in these states is as following: Congress seems poised to make a comeback in Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and MP, more comfortably in the first two states than the third.

In Delhi it is almost certain to lose and an indication to this came in the municipal elections last year when BJP routed Congress, exhibiting people’s mood for a change. The magic of Sheila Dikshit, who tickled people’s imagination for 10 years in a row, now seems to be waning. In MP, however, BJP’s Shivraj Singh Chauhan is working overnight to ensure a return. Congress which is witness to a high-powered tussle for top post – Digvijay Singh, Suresh Pachauri, Jyotiraditya Scindia are all contenders – is seemingly losing the edge and may end up an also-ran in end. In both Delhi and MP, BSP will play a spoilsport and the damage would be more telling on the Congress party. Uma Bharti may inflict some harm to BJP in MP as well. In the two relatively less significant states, regional players are likely to call the shots: NC in J&K and MNF in Mizoram are preferred choice.

At the end of it, the two main parties Congress and BJP will seem equally poised for the big game. However, at a psychological level the BJP will be far more ebullient than Congress given the present state of affairs.

Congress and UPA have far more worries than it could have imagined. Barely had it emerged out of the internal security crisis when the market meltdown brought the government under edgy eyes of the Great Indian Middle Class. Political parties know well that the vocal middle class holds a lot of relevance, if not the numerical strength, certainly the capacity to influence public opinions. Today the mood in Indian cities range from disillusionment to frustration. The euphoria of the new economy boom and surging Sensex have given way to skepticism and jittery eyes at the future. The Jet saga has acted as a curtain raiser for the state of affairs to unfold. The Finance Minister has failed to impress and enthuse confidence despite his articulate “stay invested” and “all is well with fundamentals of our economy” assertions.

The psychology of fear created by a spate of bomb blasts in last few months has left many Indians panicky especially in the urban centres. The rural poor are yet to realize the benefits of schemes like NREGA and Farmers’ Debt Waiver. The overall mood is solemn. The zeal of the Nuclear Deal is long over and people seem to be questioning which is the next crisis they are likely to face.

The alliance partners of UPA, notably the new ones, have made matters worse. In their bid to woo the Muslim voters in UP, SP seems to have gone overboard and has taken the encounter debate to new level of absurdities. Congress too has been mired by its internal contradictions and one has rarely seen a concrete statement from a senior leader. Vote bank politics has led to a crisis of confidence of political parties and Congress and its partners seem worst affected by it at the moment. For large part of Indian middle class this dubious stance of the Congress of trying to woo the Muslims is becoming painful. Worse for them, the Muslims are neither too gung-ho about the party and many local leaders exhibited this sentiment in Jamia Nagar recently when they openly vowed to wipe out Congress from power. Congress is caught between devil and the deep sea.

BJP is surely trying to capitalize on the inherent contradictions of the Congress. The recent debate over ban of Bajrang Dal, if seen in conjunction with brouhaha over terrorism, is sure to give a push to BJP’s Hindutva agenda. Apparently, BJP is preparing deadly ammunition of failures of government vis a vis Aam Aadmi be it on internal, economic or social security, spiraling prices and host of local issues to be used during the elections. Many say partly due to their misdeeds and partly some unforeseen calamities – who would have predicted the fall of the market at this point of time – Congress has been pushed to a corner now.

Not all may be lost as yet for the party however. It is still few months away from the General Elections and if the party is aware it can do a lot of damage control. But Congress is known to commit serious political mistakes and it would need close to a miracle for the party to get out of the present mess. One has to remember, Congress is not only struggling to keep its flock together – DMK is the latest irritant for the party even as the cries of SP over Batla encounter is far from over – but also it pitted against some formidable and shrewd opponents such as Mayawati. The party appeared crawling after Mayawati played a masterstroke of challenging the mighty Sonia Gandhi. Whatever skeptics might say, she had capitalized on this posturing and her voters yet again realized this is one lady who does not wink in confronting the mightiest.

Congress, which strands smothered in critical Uttar Pradesh, instead of making the most out of this outburst of Mayawati stood satisfied with some mere glib-talks from New Delhi. One would have expected any shrewd politician to make the most out of it by launching protests demonstrations against Mayawati in UP. Instead of making a hasty retreat Sonia Gandhi should have stayed on and infused some vigour into the lifeless cadres there. But they made a monumental blunder.

In weeks ahead the party will face many trickier situations. We’ll have to wait and watch whether the age-old party further shrinks in significance or chugs along with the present damages.

Act on internal security first, energy would follow

2008-09-29T05:57:00.001-07:00

In India, this past week was marked by two significant developments which could pose serious implications for short and long-term politics.

First the historic Indo-US civilian nuclear agreement has inched closer to its logical conclusion. Only do a few formalities remain before the agreement is signed which in turn would catapult India into the league of the super power nations and would also add lot of pride to India’s standing in the world. It is a major feat for the Manmohan Singh government – a coalition led by the Indian National Congress called United Progressive Alliance in power at Centre since 2004 – and in months ahead leading to the General Elections 2009 we are certain to see lot of hubbub around this issue. The UPA would want to get the best electoral gains out of this historic Indo-US Civilain Nuclear Agreement, which would pave the way for generation of nuclear power in the country among others.

But all the gains and hopes around this deal could get dashed given a second development that has left the whole nation jittery and nervous. From Kashmir to Orissa, Karnataka, Gujarat and Delhi, internal security is deteriorating everyday and the government seems increasingly feeble and incompetent in tackling it. Nothing affects people more than their immediate well being and the Congress knows it too well. When price of onions and bad roads could unseat governments, this one pertains to life and death.

Delhi serial blasts and explosions in recent past have made a mockery of government’s handling of terror. People are being mauled at will, terror groups are having a free run, violence has become a buzzword and people are feeling insecure like never before. What is worse the government has done little to contain any of these deviant acts – be it the open war cry against Indian state by Kashmiri separatists at Sri Nagar’s Lal Chowk, defiant groups killing innocent mercilessly in Kandhamal and Karnataka, terror groups planting bombs at a drop of the hat, Naxalites’ blowing up police posts at a wink and Muslim groups’ open and blatant challenge to the State. Even as I write this I learn of a gruesome act by Maoists in northeastern state of Chhattisgarh – they have triggered a landmine blast blowing up a Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) vehicle hours before the President of India was to visit the region.

All we have following all such acts is nothing more than ritualistic one-liners from leaders that lack both in conviction and courage. PM Singh and Congress chief Sonia Gandhi have issues fancy one-liners after Delhi was rattled yet again – twice in a fortnight – this past Saturday.

Elections are round the corner and all the good things that UPA government may have done will come down crumbling if situation on ground related to security of people does not improve. Time is running out for the government. One wonders a government which can’t even nudge one of its weakest Home Ministers in recent past to come out of slumber, would be able to take strong, immediate and effective measures.

If the Congress wishes to capitalize on the historic agreement with US and so many good things it has done during its stint at the Centre, it must tell its people first that it can provide a secure environment so that they are better able to relish the fruits of energy security.

Internal security far outweighs energy security and perhaps UPA would learn it the hard way.

Opposition and especially Bhartiya Janata Party, meanwhile, are having a ball of a time.

Win at Vienna, and Singur... Benign bonhomie at Hyderabad

2008-09-08T04:27:00.000-07:00

Saturday finally saw the moment of reckoning for Prime Minister Manmohan Singh when the Nuclear Suppliers Group in its Vienna meeting finally gave a waiver to India to engage in nuclear commerce, the penultimate step before the historic Indo-US Civilian Nuclear Agreement goes to the last Congress of the Bush administration for its approval. A tumultuous political drama back home that preceded this ominous NSG meet made it seem as vague as an Athenian comedy. It was a political bickering of the worst kind. But finally Manmohan Singh and the Congress party had had the last laugh.

The week also turned out to be memorable for it saw another resolution to a row, this time a corporate-political bickering. In perhaps one of the first instances of its kind, West Bengal governor intervened and brought together Trinamool Congress chief Mamta Banerjee and Chief Minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharya to bring to an end to the Singur impasse. Manufacturer of world’s cheapest car Tata has been caught in a crisis over the social pitch dug in by Banerjee – she claims farmers are being forcibly made to part with their land – which forced the company suspend operations and its MD Ratan Tata stating publicly that if push comes to shove he would not blink to withdraw his protests. While Mamta’s tirade seemed to be robbing the ruling CPI M of its critical working class vote bank, the corporate camaraderie left the pro-reform, pro-industry CM nervous. Buddhadeb has worked hard to shun the state of its anti-capitalist image and made a fervent pitch in last few years to attract investments. Tata was a big deal and Buddhadeb would not let it go at any costs. Mamta had other ideas.

Thankfully wisdom prevailed but not before Mamta had wrested a political cost – her followers think she would reap huge dividends of this posturing in elections though many dispute such fanciful ideas. The case also points to the buoyant mood of the government vis a vis reforms and industrialization, a realization that in the changed socio-political milieu safeguarding the interests of farmers was as critical as protecting industry’s wellbeing. Till some time ago this would have been termed a predicament of the government but no longer. One must note that a large chunk of the vocal, urban middle class India today relates more with the new mood of industrialization. And political parties know it too well.

From cacophonic unease in West Bengal to not so benevolent bonhomie in New Delhi between Samajwadi Party (SP) and Congress, observers were quick to note the writing on the wall.

The Press Club of India, Delhi had organised an interactive session for Amar Singh on a sultry Friday (Sept 5) afternoon and it turned out to be just the right occasion for the SP leader to make his points on the current political scene. Not only he made amends to his senior Mulayam Singh Yadav’s “dilemma” statement over N Deal, he made a host of other politically significant points aimed at strengthening his party’s claims in the run up to the Elections. To begin with, Singh seemed very upset with Congress managers assigned the task of negotiating the UP deal. Singh was especially annoyed with Digvijay Singh who he said was “after all working for his party by strongly bargaining with us.” But he took a dig at the former MP CM when Singh said, “Digvijay Singh tells us to follow Lalu Yadav a role model of coalition politics. If we were to do that we won’t be able to give away more than 8 seats to the Congress and remember unlike Laluji we have not had the luxury of being in the Cabinet for past four years.” The import of this and many other uttering of Singh was clear: SP is not going to concede too much and too soon and Congress will have to remain contend with whatever they do. This may come as a bit of a disappointment for Rahul Gandhi and his likes who have been dreaming of putting the party on a revival course. However it’s easier said than done given the complex political scenario of this Hindi heartland.

Cameras pawned from tiny, grassless lawns of Press Club to the private jet and a swanky Rolls Royce which Amar Singh and his companions Jaya Prada and Jaya Bachchan rode to reach Southern silver screen heartthrob and new political star Chiranjeevi. It is being rumoured that SP is keen on expanding its footprint and a bid to allure Praja Rajyam could well be as per the script though officials of both parties hastened to dispel any political meaning to this “courtesy meeting.” SP could especially be interested in finding a strong alliance partner like Chiranjeevi in AP as its bete noire and UP CM Mayawati of Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) has already tied up with another Andhra outfit Telugu Desam Party (TDP) led by flamboyant Chandrababu Naidu.
As it is turning out, who forms a government will depend on who has forged the best alliance, won hearts and have willing sprinters for a relay run. Amar Singh knows it pretty well and has begun his campaign. From Raisina Hills to Singur and South of Vindhyas, Singh with his flamboyance is out to win hearts for the next big event in April-May 2009.

Rahul Gandhi Should Visit Orissa Now

2008-08-28T22:48:00.000-07:00

Rahul Gandhi's four-day visit to thirteen districts of Orissa in March might have ruffled feathers within the party and the ruling BJD-BJP, but was seen as a sincere effort in trying to meet the people and understand their problems. The visit was reminiscent of his father's famous visit to Orissa particularly to Kalhandi in the eighties after India Today reported sale of a child by the parents due to crushing poverty.

Rahul Gandhi visited remote villages in Koraput and Ganjam districts where he was told not to go because of security reasons. Rahul Gandhi commented on the state's poverty. Orissa is rich, not you, he said. Aides who were travelling with him told this writer that the meeting with the tribal people had gone down well. He also said mining in the hills of Orissa would damage the environment. This 'Discover India' tour was supposed to set the tone for his discovery of India tour. That was then.

Orissa is now burning. After the murder of a VHP leader in Kandhamal district on Janmasthami day, Bajrang Dal and VHP thugs have burnt more than a dozen churches, killed more than 17 people and attacking Christians in eastern Orissa-all this in the presence of the. Despite shoot-on-sight orders the violence continues in Orissa. It is a distinct characterstic of the Indian state where despite a large presence of security personnel in such situations have their way be it in Gujarat or Orissa. Though the Maoists have admitted to the killing, VHP and Bajrang Dal leaders have squarely blamed the Christians behind the murder. Christian groups have sought the deployment of the Indian Army. Like as usual, the state and the Centre will take time to stop the violence and bring in some swift and effective action. It is time Rahul Gandhi visited Orissa before it snowballs further.

If he can shed his political skin and talk as an Indian rallying for the cause of a Kalavati or a Sasikala in the parliament during the trust vote proceedings, why can't he now visit Kandhamal. It is now that the state needs him, when it is burning.

During his March visit, close aides had given him a white paper on the problems confronting the state and religious violence was one. The paper clearly stated the causes and reasons for the religious violence in the state. So, it is not as if Rahul Gandhi does not know the communal antecedents in the state. In that case, should he not be in Orissa than touring Allahabad?

Orissa can never be rich till the time the social fabric of the state attains a certain level of civility. Whichever establishment is in power needs to understand this and work towards primarily diagnosing the problems like naxalism, poverty, tribal issues, health, employment and environmental degradation and solving them. The state needs a balm. Rahul Gandhi can bring in that balming effect, calm tempers, assuage emotions and appeal to all rabid thugs who are on a killing spree.

Orissa needs him now.

Class Action

2008-08-26T23:04:00.001-07:00

To say that the launch of Telugu actor Chiranjeevi's political party, Praja Rajyam, had all the trappings of the 150 odd films he has done in his career will be a gross understatement. On two aspects, that he knows best, his launch had outdone his films- in scale and drama. It had the epic scale of Cecil De B Mille's Ben Hur. Chiranjeevi sent a clear message to his political adversaries yesterday that he has the ability to pull and draw hundreds and thousands of people from across the length and the coast of the state, something only south Indian actors are endowed with. But among all of them who have taken a plunge into politics, Chiranjeevi's magnetism for drawing huge crowds has been the best so far.

The venue was symbolic in all political sense and sensibilities. It was on this Avilala Tank ground that the 1992 AICC plenary was held. Against the backdrop of a deafening roar, Chiranjeevi asked a physically challenged youth to unveil the party's white and green flag with a blazing sun in the centre.

His speech, running into two hours, was almost like watching one of his films except that it was a monologue. He said he wanted to fight political corruption at the top as it was the fountainhead of graft. Importantly, he said his party will be committed to socialism and empowerment of the poor and downtrodden. My party belongs to women, backward classes, farmers, workers and youth, he said. While touching upon almost all pressing problems confronting the state, he said he would do a scientific assessment of all them before arriving at solutions. His rally posters had Gandhi, Mother Teresa, Jyotiba Phule clearly indicating on which side of the social spectrum he stands.

Going by initial commentaries, he plans to unsettle the Congress and TDP bases in coastal Andhra, where he has powerful grip. The Left parties, Telangana Rasthriya Samithi and BJP have erupted already sprung up to say they are open to future alliances provided Chiru's agenda is in sync with theirs. Going by the spectacle of the launch and the cinematic spell he holds over Andhra Pradesh, it is not upto the BJP to decide but it will be upto PR to decide who to embrace and hold hands with.

He has even advocated sensitive handling of the Telengana issue and Naxalism in the state, something that his political adversaries have so far found it challenging.

His rise to stardom, like his dear friend Rajinikanth, is something that is stuff of movies and legends. Where else can you find the son of a constable rising to a superstar but in our movies? And now he has used the very same stardom and the support of his fans to launch his party. My parents looked after me for 22 years, but you have carried me for 30 years on your shoulders. Therefore, I wanted to play a bigger role in ushering a change in your lives, he said in almost a melodramatic fashion.

Critics have been swift in rubbishing his poverty stricken past and his spartan claims after the launch of the party. They must have quivered, shuddered at the thought of the sea of humanity who came in waves to see their matinee idol.

The Congress responded by saying PR will not have any effect on the party in the state rather it will affect the spoils of TDP. He had already met senior BJP leader LK Advani. The state unit has already asked the actor turned politician to come clear on Telengana issue as though he has been running the state's political affairs for donkey's years.

It would be appropriate to see how he performs than to speculate which way will Chiranjeevi swing. What is to be seen is whether the sea of humanity can be translated into votes.

During an election rally the DMK supremo, Karunanidhi had once said if only his supporters who gathered to listen to his speeches came to vote. That would apply for Chiranjeevi as well. Till then he can enjoy his new role.

Shibu Soren soaring?

2008-08-24T01:00:00.000-07:00

India's northern state of Jharkhand is becoming a case study of sorts in political possibilities. Firstly, an independent MLA with support of mainstream parties like Congress and RJD, was made the Chief Minister. This was a rare case but isn't politics an art where such rareities are made possible. Two, a strong regional leader, who till few days back was slated to take as a Union Minister, is set to return as CM. Interestingly, much like in Karnataka, independents including the outgoing CM will be the lifeline of the new leadership. Or will it not?

A spate of developments following the Trust Vote in Parliament over nuclear agreement with USA has led to a situation where Shibu Soren of Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM), a man credited with the creation of this state, is all set to hold the mantle as Chief Minister.

It's been a dream that Soren, fondly called Guruji, has nurtured and it augurs well for the people of the state who find in him a liberator.

The tricky composition of the 81-member Assembly, however, makes the task of mustering the requisite number a little difficult for Guruji. But with the incumbent CM Madhu Koda finally resigning paving the way for Guruji, it could only be minor hiccups that would be bothering him.

Monday is a crucial day and it is hoped Guruji would emerge victorious.

UPA must act NOW on Jammu - Kashmir

2008-08-13T04:20:00.000-07:00

The Valley continues to simmer and Jammu burns with rage. And what we have as a solution to the Amarnath Shrine land impasse is a stoic silence from a laggard government whose only intent and wish, it seems, is to let this volatile phase peter off somehow. But sadly for the UPA government at the Centre, this is turning out to be a predicament difficult to bury or bypass. Ahead of crucial elections in the state and elsewhere in the country, this could turn out to be a bad omen for the government if not dealt with alacrity and compassion.

This also displays in no uncertain terms that Indian government, irrespective of which party is in power, continues to lack will when it comes to resolving tricky issues.

India’s northernmost state of Jammu & Kashmir comprising three regions – plain Jammu, hilly Kashmir, and Ladakh – has been in the throes of revolt for over a month now over allocation of a tract of land by the Governor to the Amarnath Shrine Board, in charge of Hindu’s holy shrine of Amarnath which is thronged by lakhs every year.

The Muslim dominated Valley has been protesting this terming the allocation as encroachment on their “own” land. Hindus in the Jammu region, who have felt discriminated against for decades, seem to be saying enough is enough. They feel given the socio-political and cultural compulsions successive governments have adopted partisan stance against them which has led to such “high-handed” attitude of the people of the valley.

Being religious, the issue has struck an emotional chord with people of all strata and this has led to continued rebellion including blockade of the Valley – Jammu is the vital nerve that connects economically significant Kashmir valley to the rest of the country and vice versa. Among others, the whole country savours the juicy apple and oranges from the Valley. Other than affecting traders, this blockade has also led to squeeze on essential supplies to the Valley and people are turning volatile.

On Tuesday alone 16 innocent lives were lost in Police firing in Kashmir Valley and 85 were injured. One example of how the government has let this tricky issue blow beyond its sleeves is the fact that after 13 years curfew had to be imposed in all the 10 districts of the valley. In Jammu too the situation remains tense and people are just not letting the steam subside.
The second-all party meeting to discuss the issue on Tuesday had bore no fruits either and a hapless government continues to duck and dawdle. Being religious, the issue also has national appeal and with media beaming images of a restless and volatile people, their brethren Valley and Jammu, people are sitting back and taking note.

It’s a rather simple issue turned vexed by sheer lack of imagination. Time government acted and resolved it.

The beautiful state and its people, not to forget their rich cultural and religious heritage, deserve a better attention than hemming and hawing.

Will Singh remain a King?

2008-08-09T06:29:00.000-07:00

Today morning when I opened my email, I got a mail from one of my journalist friend from Chandigarh with a huge picture as attachment and “Singh is King” as the subject line. As I opened the picture I was shocked at the first glance but could not stop myself from laughing loudly at last. The picture was actually the poster from the recently released film “Singh is King” and in place of original actor’s and actress’s face it was none other than our PM Manmohan Singh raising his right hand high and holding Sonia Gandhi with his left hand.

True Singh really turned out to be a King and also shunned the notion that he was a political novice. However, his real test would be during the next elections when lot of these issue that we have seen playing in July would come back haunting to him: most notably the note-for-vote scam.

As we get set to witness the next general election, it is also time for us to closely watch the political maneuverings. It would be interesting to watch how the many regional parties shape up in the run up to the elections. It is pertinent to note that in the final analysis, all these parties would have to gravitate towards either UPA or NDA. It would be too premature to talk of UNPA as its constituents are known for their consistent inconsistency.

It would be too premature also, for instance, to think that Mayawati would remain aligned to UNPA and so on, not to ask of smaller parties like TRS (which is already hobnobbing with BJP), TDP, AGP and INLD.

Only time will tell.

By Monish Mazumdar

A pic worth a 1000 words? Ask journos

2008-08-05T06:19:00.000-07:00

A picture is worth a 1000 words, said someone. And if he saw how his worldly wisdom is put to use today, he would be turning upside down inside his grave!

Picture this: Four leaders of the ruling Indian coalition representing three main parties come together to counter the barrage of assaults from the Opposition Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP) over the note-for-vote scandal that hit the Parliament on July 22 when PM Manmohan Singh was seeking a Trust Vote over Indo-US Nuclear Agreement. RJD’s Lalu Yadav, LJP’s Ram Vilas Paswan and SP’s Mulayam Singh Yadav and Amar Singh come together to counter attacks from BJP, a political compulsion to say the least. This show of solidarity, sprung up in the aftermath of BJP’s attack, has been necessitated by the need of the parties to flock together and reiterate their opposition to the “communal” forces in the country.

Picture this as well: A day after this some newspapers (including some prestigious English dailies) have gone gaga over the coming together of these leaders. Some have gone to the extent of saying that this marks a new phase in the cow belt politics (major northern Indian states UP and Bihar, which send over 120 elected leaders to the Parliament, are referred to as the cow belt). Their logic: the leaders such as Lalu, Paswan and Yadav have come together after a long time. They forgot Lalu and Paswan have been together since this government was formed over four years ago while Mulayam is not anti-thesis to Lalu and vice versa. And they all represent the ruling coalition of UPA. A mere clasping of hands could trigger so much political analyses!

While it would be wrong to dismiss the analysis altogether, there is little doubt that the journalists have attempted to read a bit too much into this picture of solidarity triggered by the CD controversy.

And this: There also little doubt that those who propounded this theory, and possibly fed the journos, may have been able to at least momentarily create niggling doubts in the minds of Congress managers over the growing warmth among cow belt charmers. But this may have been too short-lived after all.

I will not be flummoxed to read analyses on how Mayawati’s whisperings to Sonia Gandhi, when they were catapulted into proximity at Late HK Surjeet’s cremation the other day, is beginning to jolt Amar Singh and Mulayam Singh Yadav!

Didn't you hear, a picture is worth a 1000 words!

Is the BJP turning senile?

2008-07-29T03:34:00.000-07:00

India’s right-wing Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP), the main opposition party at the Centre and in power in 11 states, is crumbling. After facing a humiliating defeat in its bid to corner the central United Progressive Alliance government over the nuclear deal last week in the Parliament and having lost considerable ground in the currency-waving scandal, the party is seemingly loosing its moral and psychological balance. Just when the nation is shocked over the terror caused by blasts in India’s two big cities – Bangalore and Ahmedabad – one of BJP’s top spokespersons Sushma Swaraj on Monday alleged, exhibiting a new low of moral bankruptcy in the party, that the blasts were engineered to divert attention from the Note-For-Vote scandal. This was a direct reference to the Congress party which leads an umbrella of coalition at the Centre.

While the Congress has surely reacted with rage, for common people, this marks a new low in Indian politics, coming as it is after another gloomy episode of currency waving scandal in the Parliament, in which also, BJP had a key role to play.

The comments by Swaraj is in a series of such baseless and mindless utterances by senior BJP leaders in the recent past.

First, L K Advani said on July 22 that the three BJP MPs who had waved wads of currency in the Parliament had his approval – a veteran leader like him could not foresee the kind of damage it could inflict on India’s pristine institution. Then in the aftermath of party protesters turning violent and attacking houses of MPs who had defected in the Trust Vote over Nuclear Agreement, another spokesperson Rajiv Pratap Rudy said recklessly that the attacked MPs should go and seek shelter and support from 10 Janpath (Where Congress Chief Sonia Gandhi resides) and Prime Minister. This was a bizarre and one of the most irresponsible statements one could think of from a mature party like BJP.

The writing on the wall is clear. The BJP has lost the plot and in its bid to outsmart its key opponent is making ridiculous accusations and moves. Strangely, the party which shouts in coarse voice over corruption is itself deep-neck into it all: in Operation Chakravyuh, a sting carried out by a TV channel to expose MPs who took money for raising questions in the Parliament, most MPs were from BJP. The first sting op in the Country by one Tehelka.com exposed the then BJP president taking cash as bribe. A leading columnist, quoting Media Watch group, wrote in a Hindi newspaper Punjab Kesari on Monday (July 28, 08) that every 8th MP in BJP’s pack of 130 in the Parliament is tainted. Also the group found that BJP has the maximum number of tainted MPs: 22.

Incidentally, the maximum number of MPs who defected on this Trust Vote, too were from BJP highlighting the moral bankruptcy of the party. Now if amid all this the party claims to preach and follow the most truthful path, it sounds plain absurd.

A friend commented in desperation, “I didn’t know craving for power mixed with lack of it could make BJP leadership so rudderless and senile.”

UPA punctures Karat's bloated ego, NDA scurrys for cover

2008-07-26T22:07:00.000-07:00

Notwithstanding the many controversies surrounding it and high-pitched moral clatter by media and political double-standards, the two-day Parliament session turned out to be a bold statement on current political situation. The Congress and SP emerged as clear winners, adept at political realignments and wooing fence-sitters. Despite their high moral grounds BJP stood miserably exposed and has lots to worry about its pack ahead of the next General Elections.

The scenes unfolded as per the script. The two-day session of Indian Parliament, as expected, turned out to be a tumultuous one with all the ingredients making it resemble a sordid Bollywood flick: drama, suspense, vulgarity and an uncanny climax. It would be unfair to say it did not have its moment of glory as well: speeches of Omar Abdullah, Rahul Gandhi, Lalu Yadav, Pranab Mukherjee and Asdaduddin Owaisi certainly added moments of sparkle in the otherwise gloomy session on July 21 & 22 called by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to seek a Trust Vote before his government goes ahead with the crucial Safeguards Agreement negotiations with IAEA a vital step leading to the formal announcement of Indo-US Civilian Nuclear Agreement.

Ugly scenes and uglier consequences

The climax turned out to be the most melodramatic, as if straight from the sleeves of a creepy director who sees little beyond the immediate. Three BJP MPs waving wads of currency pretending as if they were the only epitome of integrity in this country of deceitful people was certainly a dark moment in the history of Indian Parliament. One wonders if the idiotic scenes could yield much except fanning the already severe antipathy of people for the political class. For the BJP which may have thought this act of its three MPs to be a masterstroke – with the backing of senior leader L K Advani – the plot went horribly awry.

UPA punctures Karat’s bloated ego

The UPA won, as was largely believed, and by a respectable margins. One was aghast at the brazen embracing of morality by all and sundry, journalists included, and suddenly the air was filled with bickering on how the Trust Vote had turned into Distrust and what not. Whatever the skeptics may say, the verdict was out: UPA had won and had severed an injurious blow to the ballooning self-esteem of CPI M’s Prakash Karat, who despite never winning even a municipal elections, had taken it upon himself to dwarf the soaring ambition of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on the Indo-US Civilian Nuclear Agreement.

As it transpires now the nuisance created by Karat all these months did not have any ideological basis – many believed that this man stood firm on an ideology and hence the opposition to Nuclear deal – but rather emanated from his whims, which many believe could have a root somewhere in China! (We shall return to this in a subsequent posting) What else would explain his desperate attempts at cobbling up disparate elements to pose a ‘formidable’ frontal attack on the UPA government at the floor of the Parliament.

In the end, nothing of this materialized. The Left got a humiliating repartee and so did the BJP. BSP too got a blow despite the heroics of its leader Mayawati. Rest did not matter.

UPA, SP net gainers

The two clear gainers were UPA and especially the Congress and SP. It’s well known Manmohan Singh had made it a personal issue and his party had soon fallen into toeing his line, which is nothing short of historic. Had the UPA and Congress lost this battle, the Opposition camp would have been upbeat. While the Left would have taken a strong moral ground, NDA and especially BJP would have gone to town pooh-poohing the government over its “minority” status and “weak” dealing of the Nuclear Agreement. Ahead of the elections, this would have demoralized the Congress which is already not too high on the electoral front having lost over a dozen state Assemblies since it rode back to Centre in a dramatic reversal of fortunes after the 2004 General Elections.

SP too gained, both from a short-term and a long-term perspective. In the short-run, it reasserted itself as a responsible party with a progressive outlook and not jumping over to the Opposition camp just for the heck of it. SP stands to gain, much like the Congress, by tying an electoral knot for UP.

UP and Bihar continue to be crucial for forming a government at the Centre and SP will play a crucial role in the elections which is likely early 2009. Anti-incumbency would have begun to crawl in and Mayawati in her new avatar as a ‘leader’ of a pack of maverick politicians could be found wavering on UP and instead expanding her all-India base in a bid to become a high-potential choice for Prime Minister’s post. SP and Congress could turn out to be a strategically important combination in UP and the two would stand to gain significantly if they play their cards well. For Mulayam Singh Yadav this is a high-stake battle and he would leave little to chance.

The New Third Front leading nowhere

One can’t miss the brouhaha over the New Third Front, with Mayawati at the Front, as Times of India said the other day. While political enthusiasts are quick to juggle out figures – together they have over 85 MPs in the Parliament – to evaluate the might of this 10-party Front, there are finer points that the analysts may be missing. Put simply, the Third Front is nothing but an assortment of opportunistic leaders and its very basis is weak. The fact that it’s not driven by any political agenda and ideology – except of course defeating UPA at the parliament’s special session – and has sprung up in less time than needed to spell New Third Front could shed enough light on its longevity. It’s a wild conglomerate of temperamental and dissipated political opportunism and has little significance whatsoever in the longer run – how can we expect a party like TDP, which is opposed to the creation of a Telangana state within Andhra Pradesh, working together with TRS, whose genesis is based on the demand for such a state. Can we expect Karat’s bloated ego, as we have seen him all these years, align with an equally mercurial Mayawati? Can we expect Ajit Singh to stick with this assortment till the end or Om Prakash Chauthala not to get lured by the NDA? Third Front is a bag full of contradictions, as it stands today.

At least this is what the NDA and even UPA would want this conglomerate turns out to be. For any rise of an equally effective rainbow of political parties would make the roads to Raisina Hills more torturous for the BJP or Congress.

A lull has descended on the political horizon after a hurricane that swept it whole of this week. But this will be short-lived. Soon, all the parties would fan out to design their scripts for the next big drama: 2009 General Elections.

Omar Abdullah keeps the hope alive

2008-07-24T00:35:00.000-07:00

What we gained out of the special Parliament session

The two-day Parliament session, as we predicted on July 19, turned out to be among the most memorable in the history of independent Indian politics. Unfortunately, it is being remembered for all the wrong reasons: the brazen display of wads of notes by three BJP MPs and soaring tempers coupled with volley of verbal onslaught clouded the session, which was convened to discuss if we as a nation are willing to go ahead with the Indo-US Civilian Nuclear Agreement.

However, I for once, would remember this for variety of other reasons. And one among them is an impassioned speech by young and dynamic Omar Abdullah which left an indelible mark on my heart. It also left me reassured that there are few incredible sparks amid the dim and gloom of Indian politics which will eventually define the future of our polity.

Abdullah, who was assigned to speak at a critical time when a rampaging group of NDA MPs were taking the House by storm over the currency ‘scandal’, stood firm and began aptly by taking a swipe at them and asking them to give “us a voice” in a direct reference to the people and place he represented. And next few moments in that historic session belonged to this 30-year-old J&K National Conference MP from Srinagar, perhaps the most memorable for the leader himself who has been in public domain for last 10 years now.

The beauty of Abdullah’s speech lies in the fact that besides being cogent, fervent and precise, it touched upon a whole range of political issues and left a lasting impact on not only his constituency but also on a whole generation of Indian youth who pin their hope on leaders like him. He attacked the BJP and the Left, made an ardent plea for the Nuclear Agreement and argued why it was not anti-Muslim as was being made out, made a case for Kashmiris who toil hard every year to ensure success of Amarnath Yatra and rubbished Opposition claims that neither Muslims were opposed to the Nuclear Agreement nor the Agreement was anti-Muslim.

His speech had conviction, maturity, strong political messages and logical and factual prowess.

“I am a Muslim and I am an Indian and I see no distinction between the two. I don’t know why should I fear the nuclear deal. It is a deal between two countries which, I hope, will become two equals in the future,” said Abdullah, who it seems was aptly nominated Global Leader for Tomorrow by the World Economic Forum in 2000-01. He further said, “The enemies of Indian Muslims are not America or deals like these. The enemies are the same as the enemies of all those who are poor — poverty, hunger, lack of development and the absence of a voice.”

Taking a dig at the Left, Abdullah said, “Today, the Left is telling me that all secular parties should stand with the BJP to bring down this government. The same Left treated me like a political untouchable when I was with the NDA” and added articulating his acts of political rights and wrongs, “I am not a member of the UPA and don’t aspire to be one. I made a mistake to be with the NDA, especially after Gujarat riots happened. My conscience had asked me to quit NDA but I didn’t. My conscience has still not forgiven me.” He had by now made a solid point. But that was not it.

In reference to LK Advani’s reference to disturbances caused during Amarnath Yatra, Abdullah said, “Until the day there is even a single Muslim in Kashmir, from Srinagar to Amarnath, the Amarnath yatra will not be allowed to stop.”

The tall Abdullah had emerged taller at the end of his speech. In the days ahead, when political situation is likely to remain fluid, one would expect Abdullah is catapulted into bigger roles and assigned bigger challenges.

Politics will remain murky, it seems, but upright politicians like Omar Abdullah can ensure the spillover does not stink in the long run. One hopes.

Note: Some other highlights of the session were speeches of Rahul Gandhi, Lalu Yadav and AIMIM’s Asaduddin Owaisi. We shall come back on these later.

Keep watching: Hours of political jamboree

2008-07-19T00:35:00.000-07:00

Indian Politics has never been so exciting, so tumultuous. The next two days are going to be one of the most memorable in the history of modern Indian politics. The politicking around the nuclear deal -- defiance of the Left parties, weird demeneour of small parties with one or two MPs, designs of the NDA and desperation of the UPA -- will go down in the history as one which saw maximum number of political realignments and possibilities being explored.

Samajwadi Party (SP), a regional strong-hold in Uttar Pradesh embraced it's one-time arch-rival Indian National Congress which leads the pack at the Central Government under an umbrella called United Progressive Alliance (UPA). Left, which has thrived on its agenda of anti-communal forces, is falling into the lap of right-wing Bhartiya Janata Party to realise its obsession of pulling UPA out of government, a desire springing by the whimsical stance of Left leader Prakash Karat who is a known spoilsport. Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), a regional outfit, which has started nurturing the ambition of making a strong pan-India presence, has suddenly begun to cosying up with Left. Now with a senior Left leader's stunt of declaring BSP's leader Mayawati as the next prime minister, the mercurial leader will make an all-out effort to wean away more MPs from its archrival SP.

The smaller parties, which have languished in anonymity and isolation, suddenly find themselves in a hotspot. Where every vote counts -- UPA government is seeking a confidence vote before it proceeds with negotiating the Safeguards Agreement with IAEA -- who knows small parties with one, two or three MPs will hold the critical key for the survival or downfall of the government.

With barely hours left for the crucial vote, one wonders if parties have begun mulling over the fallouts in case of the two possibilities of government surviving or falling.

Sonia Gandhi's act of political propriety

2008-07-11T03:21:00.000-07:00

Sonia Gandhi, who heads the Indian National Congress, which is leading the UPA coalition partners at the Central Government, gained yet again in stature on Thursday by thanking the Left parties for enabling the government function all these four years. In the ugly bickering that mark the current phase of Indian politics -- the Left has been accusing the Congress of betraying the Nation over the Nuclear deal and so is the BJP, Congress's main Opposition party etc -- this comes as a refreshing change. The UPA coalition partners were meeting early in the day to strategise on seeking a Trust Vote in the Parliament in the wake of Left withdrawing its support from the UPA thus rendering the government, technically, into a minority. The Prime Minister has taken the stand that before moving to the IAEA for the Safeguards Agreement he would want to seek a vote of confidence in the Parliament.

Sonia thanked the Left parties "who have been with us during these last four years", and added that without their support the UPA could not have been formed and a good deal of what has been achieved would not have been possible. "Unfortunately, we could not carry them with us on the nuclear agreement despite our best efforts. While we regret their withdrawal of support, it is now time to look ahead," she exhorted her leaders while at the same time giving them a lesson or two in political propriety.

This is not the first time Sonia Gandhi has bestowed her generosity. She has been gracious on earlier occasions as well and her refusal to accept the chair of the Prime Minister after the UPA government was sworn in in 2004 will go down in Indian political history as a rare one.

One hopes other leaders of different political ideologies would take a leaf out of Sonia's acts.

Indian Red Guards wave the flag at last

2008-07-09T03:46:00.000-07:00

The Red Rebels who zealously guarded against the passage of the Indo-US Nuclear deal have finally waved the Red flag bringing to end over four years of its bitter togetherness with the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance government. Top Left leaders of CPI (M), CPI, Forward Bloc and RSP met President Pratibha Patil Wednesday and submitted separate letters on behalf of their outfits withdrawing support, along with a joint letter asking her to "direct the Prime Minister to seek a vote of confidence in the Lok Sabha immediately."

A group of Left parties elected representatives (Member of Parliament or MP) drawn primarily from West Bengal, Kerala and Tripura had extended their support to the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government at the Centre enabling them to secure the mandatory Constitutional majority in the Parliament after the 2004 general elections. strangely, from the word go the alliance seemed worrying forged as it was on the loud objective of preventing the “communal forces” at bay in an apparent reference to right-wing Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP). In the months that followed the ideological discomfort of the Left over a host of policy issues kept resurfacing at alarming frequency. The Left which was a critical ally of the Union government slammed it on a host of social and economic issues exposing the big chink and raised more than eyebrows on the longevity of the government. Some astute maneuvering by the Congress managers and its other strong allies such as Lalu Yadav and Karunanidhi managed to salvage the UPA boat every time the Left acted truant, which they did quite often.

The bickering grew louder around the same time last year when the Left started to fume over Government’s Nuclear deal with the USA. Strangely, while the Left mascots like Sitaram Yechury and Prakash Karat have been enthralling the television crews with interesting bytes, they have spared little time in articulating their viewpoints on why on earth they are opposing the N Deal – I wish I had seen a pamphlet on this. Now they say they would go on a nation-wide agitation – if a Left leader comes to me I will ask him why has he been snoring over it all these months and not done anything more than lip and media byte service.

I wonder what Left plans beyond this. If their best wish of pulling down the government comes true, then what? I suspect we’ll have an election, and then what. The Left block, which have been gloating over its bullying stature, would surely end up with far few seats than it grabbed the last time for people would sniff their bluff and are bound to give them a drubbing. And then? The Left would be back in business sniffing at alternatives – I suspect, for them the ideal situation would be a non-Congress, non-BJP alternative and they would not mind cajoling a relatively docile UNPA (United National Progressive Alliance a group of many small regional parties). Unfortunately for the Left with the SP going the Congress way and the relationship likely to last till after the next elections, the possibility of UNPA and Left arriving at the magical number of 271 MPs to claim formation of government appears dim. So the Left going it solo, without resting on the arms of Congress or BJP, is ruled out. Then what?

Two possibilities. One, BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) does fairly well and comes back to power. Fine for the Left as it would continue to oppose anything and everything as per its political genetics. Two, UPA comes back to power, with some elements of UNPA gravitating towards it and adding to its statistical comfort. In both these scenario Left is likely to get politically marginalized. And then what.

Amid all these possibilities one thing that will pinch the Left the most is that the Nuclear Deal will eventually go through. How sad!

Seal the deal...

2008-07-05T12:02:00.001-07:00

The deal is done. At last. Ending days of intense speculation and moving swiftly, India’s regional Samajwadi Party (SP) finally came to the rescue of a jittery United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government at the Centre which had been held hostage by its Left partners for over a year over the Nuke deal with the United States of America. Finally, ending months of bickering it is apparent the two political allies would part ways sometime soon and if that happens the UPA government needs stated support of other groups to ensure that it has the requisite majority to continue in the Government as per the provisions of the Indian Constitution. The SP, a strong regional outfit in country’s most populous northern state of Uttar Pradesh (UP), has come forward, in what is being seen as major political re-alignment, and is all set to pull the government out of a major crisis and a major international embarrassment.

In the process the SP has ensured two things: One it has resurrected its lost prestige – from absolute bewilderment four years, ago when the then ascendant UPA had snubbed the party, to a party which has turned a Saviour. Two it has ensured, it’s back in the power matrix. After getting a thrashing at UP Assembly polls in 2007, where another regional outfit Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) under its leader Mayawati had emerged a handsome winner, many had begun to wonder about the fate of SP. But the party under the leadership of former Indian Defence Minister and Chief Minister of UP Mulayam Singh Yadav is back with its clout. It is not yet clear if SP would join the Union Cabinet but it is certainly clear that it will wield tremendous influence in the remaining life of the government. And why not. Today, thanks to SP’s generous political drips, UPA government which had been on tenterhooks and sneezed every time Left leaders caught a cold looks in pink of health and is breathing well enough to last its full term till early next year (2009).
Indian political observers, who seem busy at the moment to comment on the new political re-alignment, may soon begin to ponder on what it means in the long-run for country’s coalition politics. Few trends could be as follows.

A beleaguered Congress, which has been losing state after state since it was catapulted back in the Centre in a dramatic reversal of fortunes four years ago replacing Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), realize it needs to strengthen its rainbow of coalition if it has to be in contention after the next General Elections expected in March-April 2009.

The addition of SP into the fold of UPA and next few months of working relationship is likely to foster a much better chemistry between the two parties and may also improve Congress’s sagging fortunes in the Hindi heartland – empirical evidence suggests that parties which perform well in this Hindi heartland of UP can often dictate the way wind will blow at the Centre. Congress stands to gain perhaps as much as SP out of this new re-alignment.

It is also critical to note the emergence of a new entity called UNPA or United National Progressive Alliance, which is another rainbow of regional outfits sprung in the aftermath of formation of UPA in an attempt to create what is known in India as a credible Third Front – in India Congress and BJP have been two major national parties which have hogged the limelights as far as formation of a national government is concerned. SP incidentally was the chief architect of this grouping and it was, rather it is, based on the premise of providing a non-Congress, non-BJP alternative at the Centre – such experiment has seen installation of two prime ministers in the country in the past, both of which could not last too long. Some of the elements of this group such as TDP and INLD were strong partners of the BJP-led NDA.

The drifting of SP towards Congress and UPA could possibly mean, and politics they say is a game of unlimited possibilities, that at a future point some of the elements of the light-weight UNPA may get attracted towards the UPA as well. SP can certainly be expected to play a big role as and when it may happen – for records though Om Prakash Chauthala who heads Haryana’s Indian National Lok Dal’s (INLD) declared on Saturday that UNPA would continue as it is and SP’s realignment doesn’t dampen their spirits. But that’s today and who knows how he sees the tomorrow.

One must also remember, UPA boasts of some of the finest political strategists like Lalu Yadav (of Bihar’s Rashtriya Janata Dal or RJD), Karunanidhi (of Tamil Nadu’s Dravida Munita Kazhigam or DMK) and Sharad Pawar (of Maharashtra’s Nationalist Congress Party or NCP) and the addition of Mulayam-Amar duo would add to its strength. Incidentally, one is not sure how much effect the group’s anti-BJP tirade and ranting of secular credentials would create. In the months leading to the next General Elections, UPA would have to ponder on some bigger, brighter agenda and given the rainbow of political leaders that UPA have it may not be difficult. If nothing else, the UPA has certainly implemented some best policy interventions to empower the poor and the destitute and they can certainly make right and big noise about its programmes such as National Rural Employment Guarantee A and Farm Loan Waiver for indebted farmers to name a few.

Right-wing BJP, which nurtures a big dream of staking its claim at the centre after the next elections, is certainly a worried lot and despite its winning streak in recent past it will have to continue devising means to garner decent numbers in order to form a government.

Nuke cacophony rages on...

2008-07-04T02:55:00.000-07:00

I just changed my status message in my Gmail chat to Nuke Cacophony. At New Delhi, the rattle around the N-deal has become unbearable and the drama turned dreadful. Political analysts have a field day. Television has serious stories to chase, finally. Politicians of all hues are trying to sniff opportunity. Congress is desperate to save the government and an embarrassment to the Prime Minister; Left seems to have hit a dead-end vis a vis more options it can throw at the UPA; BJP thinks inflation coupled with this confusion would add to the disenchantment of the middle class; Samajwadi Party wants to bolster its position as it has been out of power matrix in both Uttar Pradesh where it ruled till Mayawati took over in 2007 and in Centre.

It seems imminent Left would attempt at snuffing UPA out of it breath but the grouping and the government it supports would survive with SP drippings. The government would complete its full term and elections would not happen before 2009.

However, the cacophony that rages on leaves common people dumbfounded and makes them wonder if this is what political parties and leaders are best at doing. Little surprise India’s is called a queer country with, what Newsweek said in its special issue (July 7/14, 2008), a “messy democracy.”

I wonder what this question compromising India’s national security means. Those who raise the question perhaps wish to send the impression, and a messy one, that the democratically elected Prime Minister of the country and his able Cabinet have stooped to a level where they do not care what’s right or wrong for the country. It’s understood when you ask for a fair debate – the UPA is as responsible for the haze over many finer points of the Nuke deal as the Opposition parties – but taking it to levels of ridiculous accusations is nothing but a slap on the faith of people.

I am sure many of us did not expect such pervert bickering of politicians on such crucial issue as the Nuke deal. And the sad reality is that its end does not seem in sight. Not till the Prime Minister has come back after attending the G8 Summit on July 10.

Lucknow will miss A B Vajpayee

2008-06-27T05:49:00.001-07:00

While it was more than an open secret, the fact that senior Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP) leader A B Vajpayee is out of electoral politics was evident on Thursday when the first list of BJP candidates was made public. As per convention, the party has always named Vajpayee as the first candidate but this time it named National Democratic Alliance (NAD) prime ministerial candidate L K Advani. It is learnt that BJP president Rajnath Singh went to Vajpayee a few days ago and requested him to agree to be the candidate for Lucknow which the old leader refused politely. Now many senior leaders including Rajnath Singh and Kalraj Mishra have been eyeing this safe seat of Lucknow.

Vajpayee is one of the tallest leaders in Indian politics and for years to come he will be remembered for a variety of reasons notably catapulting BJP into a national party, Nuclear Test in Pokhran, Lahore Summit and a host of reforms including a massive modernisation of national highways network -- I had the privilege of watching a film made on the project, along with him and few other distinguished guests at 7 Race Course Road in New Delhi.

I will remember Vajpayee for these and one more reason. He became an important pivot in bringing about a paradigm shift in Indian politics: he kickstarted the era of coalition politics, a system where the government is run by an umbrella of political parties rather than one or two. There were many other reasons such as emergence of regional political forces and erosion in support base of the Congress party that aided this trend, but it was Shri Vajpayee who turned this possibility into a reality and hosted an all-India coalition of mainstream and regional parties for a full term. For next many decades, as things stand today, Indian politics will fall into this trend and hopefully two-time Prime Minister Shri Vajpayee will be remembered for this as well.

NA

Conspiracy of silence

2008-06-27T03:11:00.000-07:00

Did you notice the stunning silence of the Indian political class over the conviction of a Bihar Member of Parliament recently? It’s bizarre the same people who are known to stall vital discussions in the Parliament and get to streets disrupting normal lives in the name of aam aadmi and aam aurat could turn deaf and dumb when one of their own fails to pass the test of the rule of the land. It’s abhorring and depicts perhaps one of the worst forms of duplicity of the political class.

For records, the MP Surajbhan Singh belongs to the Lok Jantantrik Party (LJP) of Ram Vilas Paswan, a central minister in the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government and was sentenced life imprisonment for killing a farmer 16 years ago in Bihar’s northern district of Begusarai. LJP is an ally in the coalition government that is led by the Indian National Congress whose chief Sonia Gandhi is also the chairperson of the alliance of parties running the Central Government since May, 2004. The silence of the Congress and other alliance partners of the UPA like Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) is understandable though not beyond condemnation.

However, what is surprising is the stance of the right-wing opposition Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) and their alliance partners. Known to trounce the government and its constituent political parties on even slightest of provocations and trivial issues, the party has adopted a stoic hush and that’s incomprehensible: Either they thought the issue was too trivial to be made an issue or there was a design in this quiet burial. The BJP masters know that no political parties including their own is untouched by criminal elements and who knows tomorrow it may have to embrace LJP again -- Interestingly LJP’s Paswan is known to change his alliance partners more often than he sneezes and was also a minister in the previous National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government which was led by the BJP.

The rest parties were no different. Poll-struck, they know, noises around this issue will neither get them roving cameras, quotable quotes, nor votes.

The Indian media, which is high on N-deal and inflation too did little to probe the leaders on what they thought this delayed justice meant for this slain poor farmer and his families.

I love a dog. He does nothing for political reason.

Said one Will Rogers!